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LCD TV panel prices have been declining since July 2021 and the trend is expected to continue throughout Q2 2022. With an improvement in the Covid19 situation and a shift away from STH (Stay-at-home) and WFH (Work-from-home) policies, market demand for TVs, monitors and notebooks are all forecast to be lower in 2022 compared to 2021. At the same time, panel makers’ fab utilization rate cuts were very moderate in recent months according to industry data. Further price reductions for TV panels will push prices to below cash cost level; thereby forcing panel suppliers to intensify fab utilization rate cuts to reduce production. The recent lockdowns in China to control Covid are starting to impact factory and component production. If LCD TV set prices can reflect the cost savings for set makers from panel price reductions in the past quarters, it could help to improve demand for set. With lower production and better demand, TV panel prices could stop declining in 2H2022. TV Panel Price Reduction continuing According to a DSCC blog in April by Bob O’Brien, “the potential for a negative impact on global TV demand from Russian war in Ukraine combined with high inventory levels suggest continued price pressure in Q2. Prices have declined dramatically from their peaks in mid-2021 but supply has continued to be robust throughout the first quarter and to start the second. Prices cannot fall much further before they are below cash costs, but there are no obvious drivers of demand, and demand uncertainty has been heightened by the war in Ukraine”. The chart below highlights DSCC’s latest TV panel price update in April, showing both
“Despite the signals of weak demand, panel maker utilization remained high in Q1’22 and appears to be continuing at a high level. The industry appears to be building inventory at a rate that is unsustainable, and past experience suggests that price declines will continue until prices fall below cash costs”. Uncertainty leads to lower TV demand Large LCD panels saw dramatic increase in prices in the first half of 2021 due to unprecedented tight supply that was impacted by component shortages and strong demand both in TV and IT market. Tight supply and extremely high panel prices resulted in high LCD TV set prices. Softness in demand (due to higher set prices and improvements in the COVID 19 situation globally) combined with supply expansion lead to panel price reductions in 2H 2021. The Russia and Ukraine war, high oil price, inflation, higher interest rates in US, supply chain issues and uncertainties about second half of 2022 are all leading to further cuts in demand forecasts for 2022. LCD TV set prices are still at a higher level. According to the April 2022 PriceWise publication by Omdia. “Some major retailers and TV makers have been turning bearish and disappointed about TV sell-through results in recent months. They are concerned if they can smoothly clear their higher-than-normal inventories on hand during this challenging period. Therefore, they are pressured to either lower or delay TV shipments in the coming months, although they foresee logistic issues, such as port congestion, in-land transportation, and China’s zero-Covid policy, to continue disrupting their supply chain planning for this year”. According to the publication, “top TV makers Samsung and LG Electronics made another order cut in April, lowering purchasing plans for 2Q22; panel makers have to offer more price concessions in 2Q22. Expectations of price stabilization are diminishing for 32- and 43-inch panels, while 65-, 75-, and 85-inch panel prices are plummeting. After a drastic order cut in March and April, Samsung intends to strongly refill more panels from this June and 3Q22 onward to materialize its TV business plans for 2022”. Traditionally, Q3 is the season for higher panel demand, as brands get ready for stronger sales in the holiday season. War, Inflation, global and macroeconomic uncertainties this year have impacted the large LCD panel market outlook. Higher TV set price impacting demand Higher TV set prices will impact demand. QLED- and MiniLED-based LCD TV compete with OLED TV in the premium market. With LCD panel price increases and set price increases the cost gap between LCD and OLED TV went down in 2021. LG Displays also implemented major capacity expansion of OLED TV panels with its Gen 8.5 fab in China. New product sizes, higher productions and cost reductions helped OLED TV to gain unit market share in the premium TV market. Also new QD OLED TVs from Samsung and Sony are now entering the market in 2022. If LCD TV panel price reductions can be reflected in set price reductions it will help to make QLED and MiniLED TV more competitive in the premium market. The major panel price reductions for LCD TV have not been reflected in set prices up to now. According to a TrendForce publication in April, 2022, “Due to issues in 2021 such as the shortage of cargo containers and port congestion, shipping costs spiked, indirectly inflating the production cost of TV sets. Before the pandemic, shipping costs on a 65-inch TV was US$9. Last year, this jumped to US$50-US$100, scaling with TV size. Even though current TV panel pricing has plunged by 30% to 40% compared to last year's peak, the fact that freight costs are not expected to improve in 2022 will inevitably affect TV brand promotions and scale of stocking during the peak season of overseas markets in 2H22”. TrendForce has also revised its TV shipments forecast downward for 2022. Supply Side Impact can Shift the Balance Lockdowns in China to control Covid19 are starting to impact factory output and component supply. According to an Omdia publication in April, “HMO, the second polarizer supplier in China, has two lines located in Kunshan, mainly producing TV polarizers. However, because of the rapid spread of COVID-19 in nearby Shanghai, the entire city of Kunshan went into lockdown from April 6. HMO mainly supplies polarizers for large TV panels and provides polarizers to most Chinese panel makers, including CEC-Panda, CHOT, China Star, HKC, and SIO. Since most panel makers have about two weeks of polarizer inventory, the lockdown in the Kunshan area has not immediately impeded panel production. However, if the lockdown is longer than the original schedule, the HMO inventory held by panel makers could run out by mid-April. Moreover, HMO's inventory of subfilms is short as ports are closed. Assuming that the polarizer supply is stopped for April, the TV panel production area may decrease by over 5% in the second quarter of 2022”. Supply issues could also increase polarizer price. Further panel price reductions in Q2 2022 could push prices to below cash cost level forcing panel suppliers to cut LCD fab utilization rates. A supply side adjustment would shift LCD supply demand balance to be tighter. Capacity expansion ⇒ Price reduction ⇒ Demand creation The history of LCD industry has shown that the industry follows a strategy of capacity expansion, price reduction and demand creation to drive application market growth. This strategy has resulted in periodic cycles of oversupply (some call it the Crystal Cycle) that pushes price to below cost level. Then production cuts, investment delays and increases in demand due to low prices push the industry back to tight supply and increased prices. There is a time lag between each stage and between oversupply and tight supply. That creates heavy collateral damage for suppliers leading to loss of revenue and profitability. It seems that at the moment, the market has reached towards the end of the “down cycle”. In the “down cycle” when prices decline, panel buyers delay purchases and keep lower inventories to avoid holding higher cost inventory, resulting in a further reduction in demand. If the supply side can be adjusted by production cuts and set prices can be reduced to reflect panel price reduction costs savings, LCD TV panel demand could improve in the second half of 2022 and stop panel price decline. (SD) SmartKem and Nanosys announced on Feb 2nd their joint development agreement to work together on a new generation of low-cost solution printed MicroLED and quantum dot materials for advanced display. Both companies believe a “fully solution-printed display” using SmartKem Organic TFT (OTFT) and Nanosys’s microLED and quantum dot nanoLED technologies should result in the creation of a new class of low power, robust, flexible, lightweight displays.
They are working on prototypes and hoping to show them this year. SmartKem has previously demonstrated miniLED backlight using OTFT and working with partners for OTFT-OLED. (You're Going to Hear About Smartkem Again and Smartkem On the Up with RiTdisplay JDA ) FlexEnable has shown example of OTFT-based flexible OLED displays. The company is working on glass-free flexible OTFT LCD (OLCD) and expects first production ramp up in 2H 2022. (Novares Integrates FlexEnable’s Conformable OLCDs into its New Demo Car: Nova Car #2 and Cambridge-Based Electronics Company Raises Up to $25m Series B Fund to Accelerate Production of Flexible Displays and Active Optics) OTFT can offer truly flexible backplane technology (with a small bend radius), fewer masks (than a-Si or LTPS), low process temperatures, low current usage, wide substrate compatibility and low cost manufacturing processes. OTFT displays are not yet in mass production but if the potential for OTFT can be realized with joint technology developments, it can open up new opportunities for the display market. Organic TFT: an alternative to a-Si, LTPS or Oxide backplane Organic thin-film transistors (OTFT) technology platform allows electronics to be manufactured on flexible films up to sub-mm (0.5mm) bend radius. It can be integrated with frontplanes such as LCD, EPD (e-paper), OLED, MiniLED, MicroLCD and NanoLED. It has better mobility than amorphous silicon but lower mobility than oxide or LTPS. According to the OTFT suppliers, the mobility is enough for most application segments. It enables manufacturing like other substrates but can use a lower cost flexible substrate (TAC film/plastic) compared to LTPS or Oxide (Polyimide). Its processing temperature (<100 degrees) is low compared to a-Si, Oxide, or LTPS (300 to 350 degree). It has long operating lifetimes and very high uniformity for large area manufacturing. Its manufacturing process cost is low as display makers can repurpose existing LCD lines with minimal investment. It can be scaled up to any generation fab and has the potential to create truly flexible and cost effective display solutions. Quantum Dot: Enabling LCD, OLED, MicroLED and NanoLED Quantum Dot technology enhances LCD, OLED and MicroLED displays and is progressing towards self-emissive NanoLED (ELQD). The technology has evolved during the last few years to improve or eliminate many challenges, resulting in broader adoption of QDs. Nanosys’s new aerobically stable xQDEF is lowering costs and helping to increase manufacturability. QD enhancement film (QDEF) enabled LCDs to get to market. QDOLED displays from Samsung Display has entered the market in 2022 with product demos at CES. QDOLED combines the best of OLED and QD technology: it provides very high contrast (due to the OLED sub-pixel), perfect black, wider viewing angles with better color gamut and higher brightness. However there are still many challenges. Blue emitting materials still have efficiency and lifetime issues. Multiple layers of blue OLED can be used to reduce the problem. OTFT enabling: QD-MicroLED The mass transfer process that requires bonding RGB (Red Green Blue) MicroLED to the display backplane accurately and efficiently is very challenging. Using single-color (blue) MicroLED chips and color converting them with QD layers can help in the manufacturing process. There have been many announcements and prototypes but no mass production yet. Nanosys has acquired “glō” a company specialized in MicroLED technologies, including epitaxy as well as device and transfer technology. SmartKem, is the developer of materials and processes used to make OTFTs for the manufacture of flexible electronics. The truFlex semiconductor technology from the firm deposits organic ink on a substrate at a temperature as low as 80°C, enabling manufacturers to use a range of low-cost flexible plastic substrates with existing industry standard equipment and infrastructure. The joint development agreement with Nanosys announced that the initial validation work on the equipment, process and materials readiness has already occurred. There is already mass production partnership with display suppliers. The joint development agreement contemplates that through the application of its unique truFlex technology, SmartKem will provide OTFT backplanes to enable the manufacture of microLED displays using Nanosys’ microLED and ELQD technologies. truFlex materials have been developed for standard process equipment sets and have the benefit of both lower material and equipment costs than traditional alternatives such as LTPS. According to Sri Peruvemba, CMO at SmartKem, “Now that two companies SmartKem and Nanosys are working together, their synergies may revolutionize the display industry”. They are already working with MicroLED companies’ partners, and hoping to show prototypes this year. (for more about this deal see last week's Display Daily Smartkem & Nanosys Expand on Joint Development) OTFT enabling: QD NanoLED Nanosys has been actively developing electroluminescent quantum dot (EL-QD) technology which it calls “NanoLED”. It uses solution-printed QDs as the emitter material to make AM emissive displays. Printable, low cost QD materials with superior performance have the potential to directly compete with OLED displays even in the flexible segment. SmartKem OTFT is a printed technology. The firm has built products on its pilot line and is transferring technology to display suppliers. The most important factor is the potential for lower cost. Nanosys has the experience of taking QD technology from lab to fab in the display industry. This unique combination of two technologies OTFT and QD has the potential to allow lower cost products. Russell Kempt, Nanosys VP of marketing said “Development of OTFT backplane for MicroLED and NanoLED can be potentially a game changer for the display industry”. OTFT backplane: For MiniLED OTFT can be used for miniLED backlight with full array local dimming (FALD). SmartKem has demonstrated miniLED backlight for HDR LCD with over 100,000 cd/m² of brightness. FALD is a process of locally controlling LED light levels in a segmented backlight unit to enhance contrast in images while decreasing the “halo” effect around bright areas on black backgrounds. It requires thousands of miniLEDs to deliver the intended picture quality and this increases the manufacturing cost of the backlight unit. According to SmartKem: by the use of an OTFT backplane approach, miniLED runs much more efficiently and delivers improved quality at a much lower cost. OTFT substrate: For OLED As OTFT is already a fundamentally flexible substrate; when combined with flexible frontplanes like OLED displays displays can be truly foldable. OTFT uses low processing temperature that allows it to be manufactured on a lower cost plastic substrates bringing in cost and manufacturing benefits to OLED. FlexEnable has demonstrated flexible OLEDs with OTFT backplanes with Novaled (OLED material supplier). In 2021, SmartKem announced a joint development agreement with PMOLED maker RiT display for the production of OTFT-based AMOLED display. This could enable RiT display to use its PMOLED production line to produce AMOLED display without a large investment. OTFT enabling: Flexible OLCD FlexEnable arranged to be able to raise $11 millon -$25 million in February this year to take flexible displays and active optics to mass production. (Cambridge-Based Electronics Company Raises Up to $25m Series B Fund to Accelerate Production of Flexible Displays and Active Optics) It is expected to finance the company for its mass production ramp up of flexible displays and LC optical modules at Asian display manufacturing partners. Coretronic, a major LCD backlight module manufacturer has made strategic investment in the company. FlexEnable has a complete set of manufacturing process and FlexiOM organic semiconductor materials. Together it enables manufacturing of glass-free flexible OLCD and LC Optics in existing fabs allowing ultrathin, light, flexible and even 3D confirmable products. The company already has four active technology transfer programs underway with several leading display manufacturers in Asia with first volume production ramp starting in the second half of 2022. It has the potential to go into multiple mainstream applications and display segments where flexible displays are absent today. There are many different applications: flexible cylindrical for smart speakers, curved displays for automotive, thin light bezel less notebooks and tablets, or for dual cell TVs with true pixel-level dimming and higher transmission than glass-based dual cells. OTFT LCD cost will be very similar to glass a-Si LCD as many components are the same such as polarizers and backlights. According to Paul Cain, Strategy Director for FlexEnable “OLCD is by far the lowest cost flexible display, because of the simple low temperature process and substrate handling, and re-use of many of the cost-optimized existing LC supply chain components”. He also added that OLCD is better in terms of sustainability because of low manufacturing temp with no CVD steps and the production process uses 25% less energy than a-Si fabs. Also they are designed to use existing a-Si LCD fabs and can achieve the same PPI and resolution. OTFT LC cells can be combined with many different types of backlights (e.g. miniLED, edge-lit) which can be flexible. Setting up the process, technology transfer, and display suppliers deciding to adopt the technology in their fabs takes time. Implications: OTFT & QD will open new opportunities The new joint technology development agreements and higher investments can open up new opportunities for the display industry.
Sweta Dash, President, Dash-Insights Sweta Dash is the founding president of Dash-Insights, a market research and consulting company specializing in the display industry. For more information, contact sweta@dash-insights.com or visit www.dash-insights.com Technology developments, material improvements, product innovations combined with capacity expansions and higher competition will help flexible OLED display to gain higher share and drive the next generation smartphone market. There has been slowdown in the smartphone market in recent years. However, the market has shifted to positive growth in 2021 in spite of component shortages and slower shipments in the second half of the year.
The introduction of 5G-based products needing slimmer displays to accommodate 5G-enabling components will continue to increase flexible OLED demand. The integration of new technology such as under panel camera (UPC), fingerprint under display, integrated touch, power saving, variable refresh rates, and other features to reduce border & increased screen-to-body-ratio will make flexible OLED more critical for 2022 products. Flexible OLED Gaining Share According to preliminary data from International Data Corporation (IDC) published in January 2022, smartphone vendors shipped a total of 362.4 million phones during the holiday quarter (Q421), which was down 3.2% year over year but slightly better than IDC had forecast. On an annual basis, the market grew 5.7% in 2021 with 1.35 billion smartphones shipped. The company also mentioned that supply chain and component shortages had a meaningful impact on smartphone market in the second half of 2021. IDC expects to see supply and logistic challenges continue thorough the first half 2022 and expects return to growth in the second quarter and second half of 2022. DSCC published their preliminary AMOLED smartphone panel shipments results in January showing that 2021 had a total 644 million AMOLED smartphone panel shipments, up 28% Y/Y. Of the 644 million units, rigid AMOLED smartphone panels will have 42% unit share, flexible AMOLED smartphone panels will have a 55% unit share and foldable AMOLED smartphone panels will have a 2% unit share. Flexible OLED panels are gaining share in the smartphone market even though panel and smartphone prices are higher than rigid OLEDs and LTPS LCDs. Samsung and Apple are driving flexible OLED demand and technology developments. Smartphone brands are adopting flexible OLED for their 5G products. The need for affordable 5G products at less than $400 is leading some suppliers to use LTPS LCD at lower cost levels. Flexible OLED will continue to gain share in smartphone market in 2022 and beyond. Display Capacity Increasing Samsung Display continues to be the dominant supplier in terms of OLED capacity, shipments, performance and technology roadmap but LGD and BOE are increasing production. (LGD and BOE Competing with SDC for Larger Share of iPhone Business) More expansion of capacity is coming from companies such as China Star (CSOT), Tianma, Visionox, and others. Chinese OLED makers’ production is growing with improvements in flexible OLED yield rates and customers adoption. They are starting to gain share with more capacity investments. By the end of 2022, there will be nine Gen6 flexible OLED fabs in China. Flexible OLED – Technologies Evolving Samsung Display is focusing on LTPO (LTPS + Oxide TFT) that enables variable refresh rates and significantly reduce power consumption. (LTPO is a Hot Technology - but What Is It?) The company has adopted new material whose luminous efficiency has improved dramatically. Y-OCTA: Samsung has also developed on-cell touch Y-OCTA (Youm On-Cell Touch AMOLED) for flexible OLED technology enabling thinner flexible OLED displays. YOCTA is the process of integrating the touch sensor on-cell in OLEDs. It adds additional backplane steps to the front plane manufacturing. It also has yield challenges. Touch on this TFE concept is gaining higher adoption rates with higher number of suppliers offering it with flexible OLED display. Apple and Samsung are both using it in their products. LG Display, BOE, Tianma, and Visionox are all developing their own brand and processes for on-cell touch integration to reduce the layers and increase performance. LTPO: there is significant growth in LTPO capacity. The Galaxy S21 Ultra, Galaxy Fold-3 and Flip-3 are already using LTPO technology. Apple has started using LTPO-based flexible OLED panel in iPhone 13 Pro models. Samsung Display started LTPO production in 2020 and LGD, BOE, China Star, Visionox and others are already starting to convert capacity to LTPO or planning to do it. LTPO technology also has some challenges: increased number of photo masks, lower yields, and higher capex; but has big advantages in lower power consumption and variable refresh rates. Variable Refresh Rates: Samsung Display has commercialized “Adaptive Frequency technology”, a low power OLED panel technology that automatically adjusts the refresh rate of the display from 10Hz to 120Hz depending on consumer usage. By supporting variable refresh rates, such as 120Hz for games with fast screen switching and 10Hz for still images, the panel driving power can be reduced up to 22% compared to previous designs according to SDC. This helps with 5G products where video steaming and game content are rapidly increasing. Higher refresh rates like 120Hz are increasing the shares of LTPO panel production with variable refresh rates. New Organic Material: Samsung Display has developed low-power OLED technology through new organic materials with better luminous efficiency. According to the company, the new organic material has been improved to make the movement of electrons in the organic layer faster and easier. The luminous efficiency has been greatly improved and the power consumption has been lowered by more than 16% compared to previous one. Due to the new process, the OLED panel can create brighter light while consuming less power. The new panel is being used for the first time in the Galaxy S21. Increasing Sunlight Visibility: Samsung Display’s newest OLED display has been recognized by UL (the global independent safety science company) for its “Sunlight Visibility” performance. Samsung’s new OLED panel achieved an “Ambient Color Gamut” rating of 73% of the DCI (Digital Cinema Initiatives)-P3 level and a peak brightness of more than 1500 cd/m². The organic material is helping to achieve significantly improved outdoor visibility. Samsung Display’s new OLED panel is available for other smartphone manufacturers and is used in its Galaxy S21 Ultra 5G smartphones. Compared with the Galaxy S20, the S21 Ultra offers a 25% brighter picture (1500 vs 1200 cd/m² peak brightness). No Polarizers (Eco Square OLED): Samsung Display has also introduced its new "Eco2OLED" technology, which dramatically reduces the power consumptions of panels. It removes the polarizer applied to the panel to increase light transmittance and optimizes the pixel structure to control external light reflection. According to the company "Eco2OLED" improves the light transmittance by 33% while lowering power consumption of display panels by up to 25%. It also increases color purity, increasing wide color reproducibility. Under Panel Camera (UPC): UPC will be an essential technology for full screen use. Samsung display has developed UPC technology that allows the front of the camera on the top of product mounted under the panel. Implementation of UPC requires solutions to key challenges such as transparent plastic PI, pixel structure design (ex: transmission windows), and driving algorithms for display and camera. The company “OTI “ has developed CPM (Cathode Patterning Materials). OLED panel makers can use CPM to pattern holes in the cathode. The technology has potential for under display camera+IR to rapidly scale in mobile implementation according to the company. (OTI Highlights the Challenge for Under-Display Cameras) Foldable form factors - Growing Flexible smartphone display sizes are reaching their upper limits. Foldable and rollable phones (which can be folded or rolled into bigger screen sizes) with more functionality like tablets are thought to be able to get increased market share. At CES this year Samsung Display showcased three different foldable and rollable smartphone concepts. The flex S foldable device folds both inwardly and outwardly in an S shape. The Flex G folds twice both inwardly, creating a G like shape, where display is protected. The firm also showed the Flex slideable concept which can slide out to a wider display. Samsung Display showed S-foldable and BOE its slideable OLED displays at SID DisplayWeek 2021. Suppliers such as TCL/CSOT showcased rollable screens that can roll from smartphone to tablet at CES 2021. Flexible OLED form factors are likely to shift from foldable to rollable and scrollable. Samsung’s more aggressive pricing for its Zflip3 ($999) and Zfold3 ($1799) and better features have helped the growth of foldable phones in 2021. According to DSCC published data in January 2022, Samsung’s foldable smartphones continue to perform well with December production its second-best month ever at 1.47 million, up 3435%Y/Y. The Z flip 3 accounted for 67% of the total or nearly 1 million units. 2021 foldable smartphone production rose nearly 300% to 8.1 million units. According to industry news, Samsung Display is planning to more than double its foldable OLED panel production capacity in 2022. The company is also increasing its UTG (ultra thin glass) processing capacity. Companies such as Oppo, Vivo and Xiaomi are also expected to introduce new foldable devices in 2022. Higher capacity, lower price and more products with differentiated features and form factors will drive growth in 2022. With respect to form factors (foldable, rollable, slidable, stretchable and tiled) multi-folding designs will change the way we perceive products in the future with new usability that did not exist before. With technology developments, material improvements, and product innovations, flexible OLED will continue to drive the next generation smartphone market. (SD) Sweta Dash, President, Dash-Insights Sweta Dash is the founding president of Dash-Insights, a market research and consulting company specializing in the display industry. For more information, contact sweta@dash-insights.com or visit www.dash-insights.com New display technology QD-OLED, combination of Quantum Dot and OLED was demonstrated for the first time at CES 2022 by Samsung Display. This technology and the products have received the most attention including innovation awards.
It has also started the beginning of the use of QD-OLED display for TVs and monitors and will contribute to the growth and expanded presence of Quantum Dot (QD) technology. QD is enhancing LCD, OLED and MicroLED displays and is progressing towards next generation self-emissive display. Sony announced the launch of the first QD-OLED consumer TV in 55” and 65” sizes. Samsung is also expected to bring in a QD-OLED TV this year. Dell Alienware and Samsung are also adopting 34" QD-OLED for monitors. At CES, Samsung, LG, TCL and other brands showcased products that are continuing to push the envelope in terms of screen size and performance for TV, monitor, notebooks and other applications based on OLED, MiniLED, MicroLED and LCD technology. QD-OLED: Bringing in Higher Display Performance According to Samsung Display, QD-Display (QD-OLED) combines the best in material engineering, quantum physics and vision science to create stunning color, dazzling details and a thrilling experience. This is the world’s first display to integrate printed Quantum Dots with blue self-emitting pixels. The company is introducing QD-Display for the home entertainment market in two TV sizes, 55” and 65”, along with a 34” curved gaming monitor. It has red and green QD material printed on each pixel. QD-Display can provide superior color performance as it does not rely on color filters like WOLED or LCD.
Sony announced the master series XR A95K TV, the first TV using Samsung Display’s QD-OLED panel, with Cognitive Processor XR and XR Triluminous. The 4K TV will come in 65” and 55”. Samsung Display is the only company so far to manufacture QD-OLED display panel and it can sell to multiple brands. OLED- Pushing the Envelope in Size and Form factors LG Display(LGD) showcased OLED.EX, the next generation OLED TV technology intended to provide an upgraded viewing experience; it also virtually showed transparent and flexible OLED solutions, gaming OLED display and 17-inch foldable OLED for laptops. OLED.EX display implements LGD’s Deuterium and personalized algorithm-based “EX technology”. Compared to conventional OLED display, brightness is boosted by 3% while bezel width is reduced by 30% from 6mm to 4mm based on a 65" OLED display. LGD will integrate OLED.EX technology into OLED TV display starting from 2Q 2022 and will bring 42 and 48-inch OLED gaming displays to market in 2022. OLED TVs have achieved leadership position in the premium TV market due to display performance and thinner form factors. According to LG Electronics, their OLED TVs have been CES innovation awards honoree for 8 consecutive years. The company highlighted these OLED TV display performance parameters and features.
Asus introduced the world’s first 17.3" foldable OLED laptop at CES. In clamshell format it can be opened like a hard book to form a single 17.3” 4:3 aspect ratio (2560 x 1920) display like a tablet. The second option is to open like a laptop with two 12.5” 3:2 aspect ratio (1920 x 1280). MiniLED: Getting Thinner and Better in Performance TCL won the CES innovation award for its QD zero MiniLED 8K TV. It introduced the world’s first miniLED TV in North America. This third generation miniLED XL 85” 8K QLED TV featuring OD zero has an ultrathin profile of less than 3.4 mm. TCL is also focusing on wide color standard, more contrast with Contrast Control Zones, and more clarity with new HDR standards. It is also partnering with Pixelworks and others to define and deploy new motion ecosystem called TrueCut Motion. TCL also announced its 98” QLED TV priced at under $8K. Sony introduced its first miniLED models including 8K resolution and powered by Sony’s Cognitive Processor XR, and XR Backlight Master drive for 'more dazzling lights and deeper black with precise control' by the miniLED backlight. LG Electronics also unveiled its expanded QNED miniLED TV lineup with its own QD Nanocell technology with 100% color volume and 'great contrast' with dimming technology. Samsung showcased all its new technology that will be appearing on its Neo QLED miniLED TVs: Neo Quantum Processor (advance contrast mapping), shape adaptive light control (better control of blooming and an upgrade to a 14 bit backlight). The 2022 NeoQLED models will use a new Eye Comfort mode (automatically adjust the screen brightness, and tone based on built-in light sensor to reduce blue light levels). MiniLED based displays have been introduced by top consumer brands such as Samsung, LGE, TCL, Apple and others for TV, monitor, notebooks and tablets. By the use of multi zone blinking backlights, miniLED with QD can enable LCD to have higher brightness, very high contrast, excellent HDR, thin form-factor, superior power efficiency and display performance close to OLED. MicroLED: Focusing on Super Size TVs and Wearables Samsung Electronics announced the latest versions of its microLED TVs at CES in 110”, 101” and in 89”. According to the company it offers best in class picture quality due to 25 million micrometer sized LEDs that individually produce light and colors and heightened level of clarity and contrast. The 2022 MicroLED TVs support 20 bit greyscale depth, delivering a 'true HDR experience', 100% of DCI-P3 and AdobeRGB color gamut and immersive design with 99.99% screen to body ratio. TCL announced Leiniao AR, industry’s first binocular full color Micro-LED display powered by holographic optical waveguide technology in a pair of thin and light smart glasses. Implication: Display Technology Innovations drive Product InnovationsDisplay Technology innovations are contributing to design and product innovations in the consumer market. It is leading to a broader spectrum of product availability for each application market with different features at different price points. This will also enable the co-existence of multiple display technologies. The introduction of a new display technology in QD-OLED will compete with OLED and MiniLED QD products in the premium market. With limited production capacity and higher costs it will serve initially in the premium niche market. (SD) Sweta Dash, President, Dash-Insights Sweta Dash is the founding president of Dash-Insights, a market research and consulting company specializing in the display industry. For more information, contact sweta@dash-insights.com or visit www.dash-insights.com It is that time of the year to review the display industry trend for next year. The outlook for 2022 is uncertain because of the new Covid variant, a slower global economy, fear of inflation, and the post-Covid impact on demand. In such times, product differentiation, newer technologies, higher performance and lower prices all help drive demand.
MiniLED Display: Strong Shipments Growth MiniLED-based displays were introduced by top consumer brands such as Samsung, LGE, TCL, Apple and others in 2021 for TV, monitors, notebooks and tablets. By the use of multi zone blinking backlights, miniLED with QD (Quantum Dots) has enabled LCD to have higher brightness, very high contrast, excellent HDR, thin form-factor, superior power efficiency and display performance close to OLED.
TCL introduced high performance and ultra-slim TVs based on its third generation miniLED backlight technology “OD zero” in 2021. Samsung's introduction of “Neo QLED” miniLED backlight-based 8K and 4K TV models in various sizes helped to increase shipments. LGE also adopted QD miniLED technology with its QNED products (4K and 8K). MiniLED QD Gaming Monitors Samsung and LGE introduced TVs with gaming features (especially 4K gaming at 120Hz): with low response time, auto low latency mode and variable refresh rates. Asus and Acer have been shipping gaming monitors with miniLED and QDs. MiniLED Notebooks and Tablets High-end notebooks are increasing market share with Oxide, LTPS and OLED display technologies. Apple introduced 14.2" and 16.2" MacBook Pros, with miniLED backlight technology, after its first 12.9-inch miniLED iPad Pro in 2021. This will increase demand further. Apple's adoption of MiniLED backlight technology in IT products will give a big boost to demand. The adoption of miniLED technology by Samsung, LGE, TCL, Apple and others will have a very positive impact on the supply chain leading to strong growth in 2022. Success will depend on suppliers’ ability to reduce cost to drive demand. Quantum Dot: Growth with Expanded Presence Quantum Dot display technology is continuously evolving with new materials and new processes. It is enhancing LCD, OLED and MicroLED displays and is progressing towards next generation self-emissive display. The technology has evolved during the last few years to improve or eliminate many challenges, resulting in broader adoption of the technology. Nanosys’s new aerobically stable xQDEF is expected to lower costs and increase manufacturability enabling lower cost mainstream products at <$500 with QD. Reinventing LCD The first generation QD enhancement film (QDEF) enabled LCDs to have better color purity, wider color gamut, and offer a brighter and a more immersive HDR experience while maintaining power efficiency for TV applications. Samsung, Vizio, TCL, Hisense, Konka and Xiaomi were already offering QDEF-based LCD TVs with very competitive price that has helped to increase market shares and adoption rates. QD-OLED: Entering the market QD-OLED displays from Samsung Display are expected by the end of 2021 or early 2022. The industry is buzzing with news that Samsung Electronics is expected to show QD-OLED TVs at CES 2022. Sony is also expected to adopt it for TVs. QDOLED could combine the best of OLED and QD: very high contrast, perfect black, wider viewing angles with better color gamut and higher brightness. Companies are still developing solution-printed QDs as the emitter material intending to make AM QLED displays. However there are still many challenges. Blue emitting materials still have efficiency and lifetime issues. Multiple layers of blue OLED can be used to reduce the problem. QD-MicroLED: Coming in Future The mass transfer process that requires bonding RGB (Red Green Blue) MicroLED to the display backplane accurately and efficiently is very challenging. Using single-color (blue) MicroLED chips and color converting them with QD layers can help in the manufacturing process. There have been many announcements and prototypes but no mass production yet. MicroLED display needs a mature supply chain for high volume production. Nanosys has acquired the microLED company “glō” to improve the supply chain and accelerate product development and adoption. QD microLED is expected to be available in 2023/24. OLED: Growth with Higher Performance and New Form Factors Technology developments, improvements in materials, advances in inkjet printing combined with capacity expansion and higher competition will help OLED displays to gain a higher share in 2022. New form factors (foldable, rollable, stretchable) combined with better materials, process and designs will create new application opportunities for OLED in future. At CES this year suppliers such as LG Electronics and TCL/CSOT showcased rollable screens that can roll from smartphone to tablet. WOLED TV: Higher Performance & Higher Supply LG Display introduced a new material to improve efficiency by 20% enabling higher brightness. LG Electronics used a special panel for its premium TV: it's called OLED ”evo” and has higher brightness and better picture quality. LGD also used higher efficiency MMG (multi model glass) to produce 83" and 48" OLED TV panels in its 8.5 Gen fab in China. WOLED TV increased its share in 2021 with expanded production and a narrower price premium gap with LCD. LGD is planning more sizes of WOLED TV panels and higher production in 2022. (and there are strong rumours that Samsung Electronics may adopt WOLED with supply of panels by LGD - editor) OLED IT: growth with new product and capacity OLED displays can compete with miniLED in the high-end notebook market and in tablets. RGB OLED capacity is expected to increase for IT applications. Samsung Display is reported to be planning an 8.5 Gen AMOLED fab for notebook and tablet market. (Real Decisions Over OLED To Guide Industry to 2026) OLED: Flexible - Increasing Shares Flexible OLED form factors are likely to shift from foldable to rollable and scrollable. The introduction of 5G-based products needing slimmer displays to accommodate 5G-enabling components will increase flexible OLED demand. The integration of new technology such as under panel camera (UPC), fingerprint under display, touch display, power saving, variable refresh rates, and other features to reduce border & increased screen-to-body-ratio will make flexible OLED more critical for 2022 products. Flexible AMOLEDs will continue to gain significant share in the smartphone market with new features and faster 5G adoptions by handset makers. Samsung Display is focusing on LTPO (LTPS + Oxide TFT) that enables variable refresh rates and lower power consumption (LTPO is a Hot Technology - but What Is It?). The Galaxy S21 Ultra is already using LTPO-based flexible OLED panel. Apple has adopted LTPO in its iPhone 13. Samsung Display has developed new material whose luminous efficiency has improved dramatically. Samsung Display has also developed on-cell touch Y-OCTA (Youm On-Cell Touch AMOLED) for flexible OLED technology enabling thinner flexible OLED displays. Apple and Samsung are both using it in their products. LG Display, BOE, Tianma, and Visionox are all developing their own processes for on-cell touch integration to reduce the layers and increase performance. OLED: Foldable - Growing Samsung’s aggressive pricing for its Zflip3 ($999) and Zfold3 ($1799) and better features have helped the growth of foldable phones in 2021. According to industry news Samsung Display is planning to more than double its foldable OLED panel production capacity in 2022. The company is also increasing its UTG (ultra thin glass) processing capacity. Companies such as Honor, Huawei, Oppo, Vivo and Xiaomi are also expected to introduce new foldable device in 2022 (although Google's plans seem to be on hold - editor). Higher capacity, lower price and more products with differentiated features and form factors will drive growth in 2022. MicroLED: Progressing Towards Commercialization MicroLED display technology is making steady progress towards commercialization. The technology still faces several complex-manufacturing challenges, which will take time to resolve. The success of commercialization and mass production will depend on the ability to scale up for volume production with competitive price performance.
LCD: Losing Share, Still the Dominant Technology Large LCD panels saw dramatic increases in prices in the first half of 2021 due to unprecedentedly tight supply that was impacted by component shortages. Tight supply and extremely high prices have resulted in LCD TV set price increases. Softness in demand (due to higher set prices and changes in the COVID 19 situation globally) combined with supply expansion lead to sharp panel price reductions in the second half of 2021. BOE, CSOT (China Star) and HKC have been expanding their production capacity and increasing market share. The LCD panel market has reached a “down-cycle”. With prices declining, panel buyers are delaying purchases and are already holding higher cost inventory, resulting in a further reduction in demand. The market is expected to come back to balance in the first quarter of 2022. Panel price reductions in the second half of 2021 can help to offer more aggressively priced TV products in the first half of 2022 with increasing demand. Very low panel price will also force suppliers to adjust utilization rates and delay expansion plans. LCD has been losing share to OLED. MiniLED backlight with Quantum Dot has enabled LCD to bring higher performance differentiated products to compete with OLED. In the year 2022, when market outlook is uncertain product differentiation, newer technology, higher performance and high value products will help to drive demand. (SD) Sweta Dash, President, Dash-Insights Sweta Dash is the founding president of Dash-Insights, a market research and consulting company specializing in the display industry. For more information, contact sweta@dash-insights.com or visit www.dash-insights.com The AR/VR Display Forum, the virtual conference by DSCC on November 3rd and 4th focused on emerging display trends that are shaping the market. There is a surge of interest in AR (Augmented Reality)/VR (Virtual Realty) market due to the recent focus on the Metaverse by industry leaders such as Meta (the new name for Facebook), Microsoft and others.
Metaverse incorporates AR/VR, holographic avatar, video and other means of communications. Some see AR/VR as the next generation communication platform. To make it a reality, there is a need for many technological developments and multiple challenges need to be resolved. Emerging display technologies are an integral part of AR/VR market development. Battle of Display Technologies for the AR/VR market According to Guillaume Chansin, Director of Display Research at DSCC, Meta (Facebook) is betting on AR/VR with a $10 billion investment in 2021. Its Oculus Quest 2 is the fastest selling headset, and the company is planning a 'project Cambria' (high-end VR headset, with pancake optics in 2022) and 'project Nazare' (thin and light see-through AR glasses). Apple is expected to launch a high-end VR headset in 2022 (with dual smicroOLED CMOS Si+ one other OLED displays and Sony will be bringing in its second Gen VR headset for PlayStation 5. Companies such as Magic Leap, Snap, ByteDance (Tiktok), Nreal and others are all investing in AR/VR this year. Technology developments, product introductions and higher investment will drive AR/VR growth in the next few years. DSCC's forecast shows that revenue for AR/VR displays will grow at a CAGR of 51.6%, from $0.3 billion in 2020 to $4.2 billion in 2026. VR (including pass-through AR) will be a much bigger market segment for display suppliers, generating 4.2x more revenue than see-through AR by 2026. According to the presentation, the display requirements are different for VR (and pass-through AR) and see-through AR. For VR (and pass-through AR) most displays are based on TFT LCD and AMOLED. VR needs high pixel density to reduce or eliminate the screen door effect, as optical lenses magnify the image. Also it requires high refresh rates and a short duty cycle to reduce motion sickness. There is a need for smaller lighter headsets. For see-through AR, all headsets are currently based on microdisplays (DLP, Micro-LCD, LCoS, Micro OLED) or laser beam scanner (LBS). They need very high brightness displays to match the ambient light; display needs to be small and power efficient to make headsets thinner and light-weight. DSCC forecasts that OLED on Silicon will capture the largest share of shipments from 2025 for AR/VR display market with LCD in second place. AMOLED will lose share due to limitations of pixel density. MicroLED with higher potential brightness will have an advantage for see-through AR but will be less important for VR. LCD: Strong presence through high pixel density, global blinking and MiniLED According to a JDI presentation, LCD is leading the VR market with technology advancements such as high PPI. The company announced its latest high PPI LCD for VR at the forum. It's a 2.88-inch 1201PPI LTPS TFT-LCD (120Hz refresh rates, global blinking backlight). JDI used advanced LTPS (LTPS+Oxide backplane) to produce the display and it contributed to a higher aperture ratio (30% higher than before) which is essential for VR. The use of local dimming technology achieved higher contrast and lower power consumption. An impulse display is also realized by applying a global blinking backlight and by shortening the display “on” time and minimizing “ghosting” to provide a clearer image. The company uses SLC-IPS technology for fast response LC (3msec B/W). By combining the backlight blinking (impulse display) and fast response LC, it can achieve 'no blur' and 'no ghost image'. According to the presentation by JDI, LCD is the best technology for 2-3-inch size displays for VR-HMD as it provides a wide field of view (HFV), which is a critical factor for an immersive VR-HMD. For future VR LCDs, JDI is planning a 4Kx4K 2.x-inch display with 1700-2000PPI, 1000 cd/m², contrast ratio of >100,000, color gamut of >DCI-P3 95% with local dimming. JDI has also developed a prototype HMD using a laser backlit LCD of 2.89-inch diagonal, with 1058 PPI. The lasers proved for a wider color gamut of BT 2020 (97%). Companies are also starting to use miniLEDs backlight for LCD for higher contrast and lower power consumption. A DSCC presentation showed two products - the Varjo Aero($1900) with two miniLED LCDs (Varjo Gets Aero) and the Pimax Reality (12K QLED) ($2399) with two miniLED LCD panels (200Hz refresh rates and QD layer for high color gamut, 6K per eye resolution with 1200PPI) (Pimax’s New Headset Boasts '12K' & MiniLED - WBS subscription required). Lynx announced a $500 headset with full color pass-through AR which is versatile and covers mixed reality. In its presentation, Stan Larroque, CEO of Lynx said their product is using JDI’s LCD display due to low BOM costs and high refresh rates. They are considering other displays for future products also. Micro OLED: Poised for dominance with very high resolution & high luminance OLED micro-displays (microOLED) are viewed through an optical system and generally have higher pixel densities than AMOLEDs. OLED on silicon is the most common technology used to implement microOLED. It can be used both for VR and see-through AR. MicroOLED displays can be generally categorized into RGB OLED and White OLED (WOLED) classes. However high resolution RGB OLED microdisplays still face challenges due to a shadow effect during the deposition process using a FMM (Fine Metal Mask). White OLED uses a color filter to generate the image and can achieve high PPI (4000PPI). However the color filter absorbs a very high percentage of the emitted light that limits maximum brightness for microOLED. Sony has been using a microLens to increases peak brightness of its OLED micro-display. Kopin has developed a trio stack architecture to increase brightness. According to the presentation of Andrew Sculley, CEO of eMagin, there are four major challenges for the AR/VR market: Displays, Optics, Content and Price.
The human eye’s resolution capability is 60 Pixels/degree (PPD). eMagin's OLED microdisplay demo has 40PPD compared to the Oculus Quest 2's PPD of 20. For microOLED, its higher PPD, high luminance (to eliminate motion artifacts), high resolution (to eliminates screen door effects), high fill factor, higher efficiency and longer life time capabilities result in increased demand for the VR applicatrion. See-through AR also requires very high brightness, very high resolutions and very high contrast. These requirements make OLED microdisplays more applicable for both AR and VR. eMagin has achieved 10,000 nits brightness in a 1920 X 1200 4K OLED microdisplay, made by direct patterning (eliminating the color filter) of red, green, and blue (RGB) sub-pixel emitters on the backplane. The red and green emitters were made from phosphorescent materials and the blue from fluorescent material. This has enabled a significant improvement in efficiency and lifetime. eMagin has a roadmap to develop 30,000 nits full color peak luminance. Chinese Developments A DSCC presentation by Chase Li about microOLED capacity development in China showed that nine companies have plans for constructions including BOE, Lakeside, SeeYa, Sidtek, Jicui. Most of them will adopt a white OLED+ colour filter approach. By 2025, 81% of the capacity will be from OLED microdisplays made in 12-inch (300mm) fabs. BOE is expected to ramp up production in next two to three years. According to DSCC’s Chansin, BOE’s 0.71inch displays are in a Qualcomm reference design for Smart Viewer glasses. SeeYa’s 1.03-inch display is being used in the Arpara VR headset in 2021. LG display from Korea has demonstrated a 0.42" micro OLED display (3500PPI) at SID Display Week 2021. MicroLED: Emerging presence with ultra high brightness, high reliability and small form factor MicroLED’s very high brightness, high reliability (inorganic LED display) and ability to create ultra compact form factors will have major advantages for the see-through AR market. As presented by DSCC, many companies including Vuzix, Snap, Xiomi, TCL and Meta are introducing microLED display based AR/VR headsets. Vuzix’s next gen smart glass uses Jade Bird Display's (JBD) microLED. Waveoptics (Snap) announced a developmental kit and projector using a JBD display and Kopin has announced collaboration with JBD to develop monochrome microLED displays. Xiaomi and TCL both introduced microLED-based smartglass prototypes in 2021. Applied Material’s presentation by Nag Patibandla showed that they have demonstrated microLED direct view display using single wavelength UV-A microLED and CD free Quantum Dot technology in an innovative pixel architecture (reducing and simplifying mass transfer and repair). They have achieved higher efficiency, higher resolution (high EQE uvMicroLED + Quantum Dot technology) (inkjet printing + self aligned curing) and higher yield (one time mass transfer). The company has demoed two displays: one with microLED, 433PPI, 1000nits, the second one with microLED, 318PPI, 10,000 nits. The company’s near-eye AR displays road map show of 1588 PPI and 3396PPI with uvMicroLED. (Applied Materials Overcomes Some Challenges in MicroLED for VR) A presentation from JBD's Leon Baruah showed that JBD is focusing on commercialization of microLED-based microdisplays. It is boosting its current pilot fab capacity in Shanghai and will start its Hefei fab in 2022 (operation will start in Q1 2023). JBD microLED microdisplays have achieved high brightness (up to 4.5million nits), power efficiency (6mW for 10K nits), small form factor (pixel pitch from 2.5micron to 5micron) and more than 100,000:1 contrast, deep black and 125Hz refresh rate. The company has introduced a very small (0.35cc in volume) monochrome microLED projector and a polychrome projector (1.35cc in volume). A Mojo Vision presentation from Naamah Argaman showed that they have created a smart contact lens with built-in microLED (nanoLED) display (with1.8 micron pixel pitch, monochrome green, 14,000 PPI) that gives information to users without interrupting their focus. They are building prototypes. They are also working on Quantum Dot color conversion from blue to get brighter pixels. MicroLED displays have great potential in AR/VR due to their high brightness and high contrast. (Mojo Vision Developing NanoLEDs) Companies such as CEA-Leti, MICLEDI, and Coherent LaserSystems participated and presented in the AR/VR forum’s microLED manufacturing session. Technology developments, product introductions and higher investments will drive AR/VR growth in the next few years. Display technology developments will be an the integral part of AR/VR market growth. (SD) Sweta Dash, President, Dash-Insights Sweta Dash is the founding president of Dash-Insights, a market research and consulting company specializing in the display industry. For more information, contact sweta@dash-insights.com or visit www.dash-insights.com OLEDs World Summit in September this year gave a glimpse of advances in OLED display technology that will shape next generation products. Flexible AMOLEDs continue to gain significant shares in the smartphone market. Large size OLED has also achieved strong position on premium TV market.
Foldable OLED smartphones are expected to gain strong market shares in 2021 due to aggressive pricing by top brands. New form factors (foldable, rollable, stretchable) combined with better materials, process and designs will create new usability of products in future, opening up new application opportunities for OLED display technology . Flexible, Bendable, Stretchable Flexible OLED form factors are shifting from foldable to rollable and scrollable. At CES this year suppliers such as LG Electronics and TCL/CSOT showcased rollable screens that can roll from smartphone to tablet. The introduction of 5G-based products needing slimmer displays to accommodate 5G-enabling components will increase flexible OLED demand. Integration of new technology such as fingerprint under display, touch display, power savings, variable refresh rates, and other features to reduce border & increased screen-to-body-ratio can make flexible OLED more critical for next generation products.
OLED Microdisplays (for AR/VR) Amal Gosh, COO of eMagin Corporation presented on OLED microdisplays for AR/VR applications. Microdisplays are very small in size (<1-inch in diagonal). Typically they are used in indirect view displays where a lens is needed to view them and are primarily used in near-to-the-eye applications. According to the presentation, “the company has the brightest OLED commercially available- monogreen with peak luminance over 40,000 cd/m². It als has a full color microdisplay with 7500cd/m² brightness, and target 10,000 cd/m² in 2021. Their micro display features: very high contrast (>1,000,000:1), low power consumption (longer battery life), compact form factor, light weight solution, field tested for reliability and performance, nausea-free operation, superior performance, and a competitive cost at higher volumes”. Their OLED on silicon microdisplay is based on a CMOS backplane using white OLED with color filter technology. According to the presentation, it has been able to achieve brightness up to 3000 cd/m² (no tandem, no micro lens). AR/VR has four major challenges: display, optics, content and price. For the display the key requirements are the following: angular resolution to match the eyes, large field of view (FOV), no screen door effect, fast speed–no motion artifacts, high contrast, brightness to match the eye’s requirement, and realistic color. To fullfill all these requirements for a better AR/VR experience, microdisplays are needed, as high fill factor and high resolution eliminate the screen door effect, leading to a superior experience. Very high resolution, very high brightness and very high contrast microdisplays are key to the success for AR/VR applications. In a device based on an OLED with color filter, there is a loss of brightness (the color filter absorbs 80% of the useful light). eMagin has developed a new direct patterned OLED microdisplay without the color filter. According to the company, direct patterned RGB microdisplays outperform white OLED with color filter versions: there is 4x more luminance at comparable current density, 15x more luminance at comparable voltage. The product has achieved 7500cd/mcd/m² maximum luminance. They are on target to achieve 10,000 cd/mcd/m² by the year-end 2021. OLED for Automotive Some premiums OEMs have shipped cars with OLED display in small quantities. The major issues for OLED in automotive are generally in luminance, temperature and lifetime. Prof. Dr.Karlheinz Blankenbach, presented “OLED on the passing lane of Automotive”. Automated driving provides the freedom for radically different vehicle interiors transforming cars into locations for work and play. Still many challenges exist including high quality display and seamless integration. The automotive display is expected to grow in the next several years. The OLED working group of the Deutsche Flachdisplay Forum (DFF) is working on the standardization of OLED for automotive use. According to the presentation, there are several fundamental requirements for automotive displays:
Advances in OLED display technology will open up new opportunities for next generation products. (SD) Sweta Dash, President, Dash-Insights Sweta Dash is the founding president of Dash-Insights, a market research and consulting company specializing in the display industry. For more information, contact sweta@dash-insights.com or visit www.dash-insights.com Quantum Dot display technology is continuously evolving with new materials, new processes and new devices while progressing towards becoming the ultimate next generation self emissive display solution. The recent virtual “Phosphors and Quantum Dots Industry Forum” from September 14-15 gave a glimpse of the future of this display technology.
Reinventing the Display Industry Quantum Dot Display has established itself as a formidable force with lower prices, higher product availability and improved performance enabling strong growth in shipments. The first generation QD enhancement film (QDEF) enabled LCDs to have better color purity, wider color gamut, and offer a brighter and more immersive HDR experience while maintaining power efficiency for TV applications. The technology has evolved during the last few years to improve or eliminate many challenges resulting in broader adoption of the technology. It has enabled LCD technology to reinvent itself and has created growth opportunities. This technology is expected to enter an expansion phase in next few years through technology developments that will enhance other display architectures such as OLED and MicroLED. Finally, it aspires to be a leader by offering the most cost effective, flexible emissive Quantum Dot displays in future. According to Jason Hartlove CEO of Nanosys in his keynote presentation: Quantum Dots: Reinventing the display Industry. “It has already changed the industry with QDEF. QDs will sooner deliver even more differentiated visual experience with QD-OLED, QD-MicroLED and QD-nanoLED”. Enabling OLED & MicroLED According to Hartlove’s presentation, Next-Gen Quantum Dot Colour Conversion (QDCC) will overcome OLED limitations in 2021. “The future of OLED plus MicroLED success requires Quantum Dot color conversion. QD pairs seamlessly with OLED. It replaces inefficient, wasteful color filters and white subpixel and simplifies the manufacturing process”. QDOLED could combine the best of OLED and quantum dot technology: it should provide very high contrast (due to the OLED sub-pixel), perfect black, wider viewing angles with better color gamut and higher brightness. It uses solution-printed QDs as the emitter material to make AM QLED displays. Printable, low cost QD materials with superior performance have the potential to directly compete with OLED displays even in the flexible segment. However there are still many challenges. Blue emitting materials still have efficiency and lifetime issues. Multiple layers of blue OLED can be used to reduce the problem. Nanosys CEO Jason Hartlove said that he expect QDOLED to be available in 2021/22, QD MicroLED in 2023/24 and NanoLED in 2025/26. QD-OLED displays from Samsung Display are expected by the end of 2021 or early 2022. The mass transfer process that requires bonding RGB (Red Green Blue) MicroLED to the display backplane accurately and efficiently is very challenging. Also different colors of LED need slightly different voltage and drive currents. Color conversion by Quantum Dots (QDs) (QDCC) or by phosphor provides another alternative. Using single-color (blue) MicroLED chips and color converting them with QD layers can help in the manufacturing process. According to Hartlove, QD MicroLED enables new markets such as Auto HUDs and AR smart glasses. There have been many announcements and prototypes but no mass production yet. Many things need to be resolved before commercialization of the product. MicroLED display needs a mature supply chain for high volume production. Nanosys has acquired the microLED company “glō” to improve the supply chain and accelerate product development and adoption. Expanding Towards the Mainstream Nanosys recently announced the aerobically stable xQDEF concept where no barriers are required and is expected to lower costs and increase manufacturability. The “air stable” QDs material from Nanosys (no extra protection required for oxygen or moisture) and innovative co-extrusion manufacturing technology by CYD has resulted in the xQDEF diffuser plate. The barrier film has kept the cost at a higher level and restricted the supply chain to only those with barrier film capabilities in the past. New products in films or diffuser plates will open up the supply chain with a greater possibility of lower costs. The diffuser plate can be added to any simple full array local dimming backlight type TV enabling lower cost mainstream product at <$500 with QD. This technology has been embraced by brand such as TCL, Hisense. It is already in mass production. According to DSCC presentation by cofounder Bob O’ Brien, “DSCC expects growth in TV using QD technology to grow to 18% from 2020 to 2026. QD will be the dominant configuration on MiniLED TVs. Samsung’s QD OLED will extend the technology further.” Evolving to Next Generation Emissive Display: Sharp Display Technology According to Dr. Yang Qu's presentation, next generation self-emissive displays based on QD LED combine the advantages of both LCD and OLED and is a game changer in the display industry (TV, mobile, auto etc) with its exquisite image quality, high device reliability, low cost manufacturability (existing LCD fabrication EQ available). Sharp has developed an Electroluminescence (EL) top emission structure. It has narrow emission spectrum combined with high emission efficiency that enables wide color gamut, high brightness, low power consumption and long lifetime. It has higher contrast compared to LCD and higher brightness compared to OLED and flexibility like OLED with the potential for lower cost. Samsung and Sharp have announced their plan to focus on Cd-free QDs. BOE and TCL have shown Cd-based demos. The ultimate goal of the industry is Cd-free QD emissive displays. As Sharp presented there are three major challenges for realizing QD-LED:
Samsung Advance Institute of Technology (SAIT) Dr. Yu-Ho Won of SAIT presented on highly efficient and stable Cd-free QD LEDs and the recent research progress in InP-based Red QD-LEDs and ZnTeSe-based Blue QD-LEDs
A Nanosys presentation by Ray Ma, Senior Director indicated that controlled QD synthesis with shape engineering has resulted in a significant improvement un heavy metal free NanoLEDs. Performance is reaching the commercialization level. It has the potential to address all display application with low costs. Quantum Dot display technology is continuing its journey along the path of innovation for next generation products. To make the future potential a reality, developments need to continue in terms of materials, printing, encapsulation processes, equipment and the supply chain. (SD) Sweta Dash is the founding president of Dash-Insights, a market research and consulting company specializing in the display industry. For more information, contact sweta@dash-insights.com or visit www.dash-insights.com Large LCD panels have seen dramatic increase in prices in the first half of 2021 due to unprecedented tight supply that was impacted by component shortages. Panel prices have been increasing for more than a year starting from mid-2020 due to strong demand both in TV and IT market.
Tight supply and extremely high panel prices have resulted in LCD TV set price increases. Softness in demand (due to higher set prices and changes in the COVID 19 situation globally) combined with supply expansion will lead to panel price reductions in 2H 2021. Dramatic Price Increase - Impacting Demand An increase in demand for larger size TVs in the second half (2H) 2020 combined with component shortage (glass, driver ICs, Polarizers and other components) has pushed the market to unprecedented supply constraint and continuous panel price increase from end of Q2 2020 to 1H 2021 according to DSCC's blog in August this year, “Prices increased in Q2 2021 by a double-digit percentage for all sizes of TV panels, with increases ranging from 11% to 22%. Also according to the company, “Comparing our forecast for peak panel prices (in June or July 2021) with the prices in May 2020, we see trough-to-peak increases from 32% for 75” to 175% for 32”, with an average of 106%. In comparison, the average trough-to-peak increase of the 2016 to 2017 cycle was 48%, and prior cycles saw smaller increases.” Market demand for tablets, notebooks, monitors and TVs increased in 2020 especially in the second half of the year due to the 'stay at home' impact, when work from home, education from home and more focus on home entertainment pushed the demand to a higher level. With 'stay at home' continuing in the first half of 2021 and UEFA European Championship soccer and Olympics in Japan, TV brands continued to see strong panel demand in that period. Dramatic panel price increases have resulted in higher costs for TV brands reducing profitability. Brands have increased set prices for their TVs. TV brands have also focused more on larger size higher specs products for better profitability moving away from small and medium sizes, which will impact shipments volume. Lower priced brands (Tier2/3) had a difficult time acquiring enough panels to offer lower priced TVs. Panel suppliers are also giving priority to top brands with larger orders during the supply constraint. In recent quarters, the top five TV brands including Samsung, LG, and TCL, have been gaining higher market share. Countries with better control of COVID variants such as U.S and Europe are starting to open up offices, schools and increasing travel. Demand that surged during the stay at home economy, has slowed down as consumers spend more on other things. Countries like India and Japan continue to struggle with the variant. High set prices combined with changes in the stay-home economy will impact TV demand especially in 2H2021. LCD Pain - OLED Gain While LCD TV faced extreme tight supply and panel price increases, OLED TV has made capacity expansions and cost reductions as LG Display added additional capacity in its 8.5 Gen fab in Guangzhou (increasing to 90K/m up from 60K/m). Also TV brands are more focused on expanding their OLED TV product line as the cost gap between equivalent LCD and OLED panels has reduced significantly. OLED TV is also providing higher profitability for brands. OLED TV has gained higher market share. According to data published by DSCC in August, OLED shares increased in booming advanced TV market in Q2 2021. “While OLED TV share of all Advanced TV had declined during 2018-2020, the additional capacity from LG Display’s Guangzhou fab combined with rising LCD TV panel prices has helped OLED TV regain share in the premium category. OLED TV shipments increased by 169% Y/Y in Q2 2021, while Advanced LCD TV shipments increased by a more modest 36% Y/Y, and OLED TV share increased from 25% in Q2 2020 to 40% in Q2 2021.” According to TrendForce’s data published in August, “OLED panels expected to reach 3% penetration in TV panel market in 2021 owing to persistently narrowing price gap with LCD panels. The company also reported that high-end OLED TV panels and 8K LCD TV panels showed dramatically opposed movements in 1H21, while OLED TV panel increased market shares to 2.6%, 8K LCD shares fell to a mere 0.2%”. This is because as the company reported “panel suppliers’ concerns about profit and yield maximization resulted in their relatively low willingness to manufacture these products. On the demand side, clients were also unwilling to procure these panels due to persistently high quotes from suppliers.” OLEDs are expected to enjoy continuous growth, as they take higher market share from TVs and smartphones as well as the IT market, benefiting from supply expansion and cost reduction. LCD - Supply Expansion According to an Omdia press release in May this year, “tight supply, high factory utilization rates, and high profitability are encouraging many panel makers to increase their capacities. There were already multiple Gen 8.6 and Gen 10.5 factories in China that were accelerating capacity ramp-ups in 2021 and 2022 after COVID-19 delayed them in 2020”. Chinese panel makers are incrementally increasing the capacity of their current factories through productivity enhancements and new equipment purchased for de-bottlenecking or creating capacity expansion according to Omdia. TrendForce’s found in August this year, “Chinese panel suppliers were able to achieve a 58.3% share in the TV panel market, which was nearly 5 percentage points higher than their 1H20 market shares, thanks to their growing number of production lines. Conversely, Taiwanese suppliers saw their market share drop by 2.2 percentage points from 1H20 levels to 21.1% in 1H21… Korean suppliers experienced a decline in market shares to 14.3% while Japanese suppliers’ market shares increased to 6.3% as a result of SDP’s Gen 10.5 capacity expansion”. BOE and CSOT (China Star) have been the top two panel suppliers for LCD TV. They are expanding their production capacity. At the same time HKC is currently increasing its production capacity (4 Gen 8.6 fabs) and is expected to enter the top three rank of TV panel suppliers for the first time with 33.7% YoY increase in TV panel shipments in 2021, according to TrendForce. The capacity ramp-up by panel suppliers in China and their strong dominance in the TV panel market combined with higher profitability and the need for new suppliers to increase their market share will result in supply expansion in the second half of 2021. Price Decline - Second Half of 2021 The industry is already reporting some price reduction for TV panels. TrendForce reported in the beginning of August: 7.5% MoM decline for 55’ W UHD open cell TV panels in July. The Display Supply Chain Consultants LCD TV Panel Price Update in August 2021 confirmed LCD panel pricing peaking in June/July and starting to go down. DSCC forecasts price declines for LCD TV throughout the second half of 2021. It seems that market has reached the end of the “up cycle” of the LCD crystal cycle ending the tight supply situation. The LCD crystal cycle generally creates a multiplier effect with each “up and down” cycle. During the “up cycle” with tight supply and panel price increases, panel buyers buy more, keep higher inventories and sometimes place orders with double bookings to ensure future supply, thereby pushing the market to an even tighter situation. In the “down cycle” when prices decline, panel buyers delay purchases and keep lower inventories to avoid holding higher cost inventory, resulting in a further reduction in demand. With the start of the down cycle, LCD TV panel prices will decline in the second half of 2021. (SD) Sweta Dash, President, Dash-Insights Sweta Dash is the founding president of Dash-Insights, a market research and consulting company specializing in the display industry. For more information, contact sweta@dash-insights.com or visit www.dash-insights.com |
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