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DSCC Supply Chain Conference: Outlook and Issues for the TV and IT Market

11/9/2022

Display market outlook and issues were discussed at DSCC’s “The 2022 Global Display Supply Chain Dynamics & Technology Conference” on October 19th. It gave a glimpse of what is happening in the current market and what to expect in next few years.

Flat Panel display Market Slowed Down in 2022
According to Bob O’Brien’s ‘Display Market Outlook” presentation, after two years of great growth, driven by the pandemic, the flat panel market has slowed down. While 2021 was the best year in flat panel display history with the biggest price and revenue increases, 2022 will be a year with double digit revenue decline and no area growth. TVs, mobile phones, monitors, notebooks, and tablets, are all expected to decline in units and revenue in 2022. High inventory in the supply chain needs to be digested and panel suppliers are cutting utilization rates.
Recovery is expected in 2023. Still global recession, macro downturn and demand constraints can bring downside risk. Stronger growth in China stimulated by lower prices especially in the TV market can bring upside potential to the forecast. For the long-term forecast up to 2026, LCD units and revenue are expected to decline slowly and LCD area growth will slow to 3% CAGR with OLED gaining share. OLED is expected to have double digit percentage area growth, but revenue growth will be slower as prices decline.

LCD and OLED battling for Premium TV Market: MiniLED & QDOLED pushing the Technology
TV is the most important application for the flat panel display market as it commands 70% share in terms of display area. It will increase its share to 72% of display area by 2024 according to Bob O’Brien’s “TV Market Outlook” presentation. According to his presentation, pandemic demand drove the biggest increase ever for LCD TV panel prices. After the pandemic demand dried up the industry saw the fastest price declines in history. TV panel prices are stabilizing at new all-time lows.
Panel price increases in 2021 also drove the first ever price increase in TV sets in the U.S market. TV inflation peaked in August 2021 at 13% but by August 2022 prices were down by 20%. Lower TV prices driven by lower demand and lower LCD panel prices are making TV set prices for the holiday season more competitive.
A Strong Technology Battle in TVThe technology battle is strong in premium TV market with a three-way battle between MiniLED LCD, white OLED and QDOLED. DSCC's Advanced TV segment includes QDEF, WOLED, 8KLCD, MiniLED LCD and QDOLED. Except for QDEF, all are much higher costs than standard LCD. According to the DSCC cost model comparison, MiniLED LCD cost is on a par with WOLED with a range that is higher or lower depending on the number of LEDs and QDOLED has the highest cost.
According to the TV Market Outlook presentation, OLED TV has gained share with new screen sizes of 48” and 83”. In Q2 2022 OLED TV<=48” grew 50% Y/Y. Advanced LCD TV lost unit share in 2021 due to higher panel prices. In 2022 LCD is regaining unit share due to lower panel prices. MiniLED LCD TVs grew rapidly in 2021 but continue to be outsold by OLED TVs. According to Bob’s presentation:

The worldwide TV market will continue to be dominated by LCD technologies, including MiniLED.
Unit demand will be flat, but screen sizes will continue to increase, driving area growth at a 5% CAGR (‘19-’26) for total TV.
OLED TV units/area will grow at a 23%/23% CAGR (‘19-’26).
LCD TV units will decline at a 1% CAGR but area will grow at 4%.

DSCC expects Advanced TVs for all technologies to grow by 20% CAGR from 2019-2026. LCD is expected to grow by 19% driven by MiniLED and 8K. OLED will grow by 22% with QDOLED and Inkjet Printed OLED adding to WOLED. MicroLED will remain a miniscule fraction of Advanced TV units.
TVs using Quantum Dot technology are forecast to grow through the forecasted period up to 2026. DSCC expects growth in TVs using quantum dot technology to have 16% CAGR from 2019-2026. QD will be the dominant configuration on MiniLED TVs.
According to Ross Young’s presentation on “Display Capex and Manufacturing Technology”, Samsung Display (SDC) is planning to add another 30K QDOLED capacity to its current mass production of 8.5 Gen Fab with 30K capacity. He presented that new QDOLED investment is expected to be decided in 1H23. New phosphorescent blue OLED emitters would significantly help to reduce costs and would expand existing capacity by reducing the number of blue layers. Ross’s presentation highlighted that currently in QDOLEDS, QDs are deposited on a separate color filter (CF) substrate. In future it is expected to shift to QD on encapsulation (QOE), in which a single substrate is used and the QDs are deposited over the TFE. By this process brightness can be increased by 20%.
MicroLED TVs have been available since 2020 but prices are higher than $100K. MicroLED is expected to show strong growth but it is forecast by DSCC to have only 0.1% of unit volume of Advanced TV in 2026.

OLED Technology and Capacity Enhancements: Increasing MiniLED and OLED competition in IT MarketRoss Young, in his “Display Capex and Manufacturing Technology” presentation, said that big improvements are coming in OLED performance. Tandem RGB OLED stacks, Phosphorescent blue OLED emitters, color filter on encapsulation (CoE), rigid plus TFE (Thin Film Encapsulation) substrate, LTPO/Variable refresh and many other technology enhancements will boost OLED performance in future. At the same time G8.7 substrates, IGZO backplanes and rigid plus TFE will help to reduce costs.
According to his presentation, from 2025 to the 2027 time frame, SDC, BOE, and LGD will have 8.7 Tandem RGB stack fabs with Rigid plus TFE (hybrid) substrate. While SDC and LGD are planning for IGZO backplanes, BOE will have LTPO backplanes. Tandem stacks are expected to provide higher efficiency, higher life time and reduced burn-in but there are challenges with higher Capex (8.7 tandem stack tools expected cost $1 billion for 15K substrates/month) and lower yields.
Rigid+ TFE substrate can also generate real cost savings by eliminating a number of process steps and equipment. Eliminating the top substrate can significantly reduce the weight and thickness vs rigid OLEDs. High mobility IGZO backplanes have many advantages, Ross explained, including low leakage, low temperature process, low off current, good uniformity, high transparency, low refresh drive, variable refresh rates, fewer masks (7 to 10), scalable to larger sizes and a single fab could address all display applications.
It also has many challenges including sensitivy to process and materials and bias stress stability which is highly sensitive to small variations in oxygen concentration. Advanced IGZO may have twice as many masks compared to traditional IGZO backplanes. According to DSCC data, LTPO at G8.7 is only 5% more cost than Advanced IGZO due to high mask counts and additional process steps in Advanced IGZO fabs. G6 has highest price per square meter. Traditional IGZO on G8.7 rigid+ TFE is 45% less per square meter. G8.7 Advanced IGZO is 11% less and G8.7 LTPO is 6% less.
The “Display Cost and Price Outlook” presentation from Yoshio Tamura gave a cost comparison of display products. In his presentation, he said
“SDC is now aggressively promoting rigid OLED for notebook PCs. In addition, Apple is said to be launching an OLED tablet in 2024 by using a hybrid RGB OLED display next to its current MiniLED product. Apple is striving for thinner, brighter and longer lifetime OLED displays with new advanced technologies such as tandem, rigid TFE and better mobility. Rigid and Hybrid OLED displays will have to compete with thinner/lighter LCDs, Oxide LCDs, LTPS LCDs and QHD/UHD LCDs especially in the high end of the notebook PC market to fill in their new G8.5 to 8.7G fabs from 2024”.
David Naranjo, in his “IT Display Market Outlook” said that 2020 and 2021 had seen a surge in units and revenue as a result of the pandemic. 2022 is estimated to see a decline of 13% Y/Y in units and 23% Y/Y decline in revenue as a result of these macroeconomic issues and weakened consumer and commercial demand. He also presented that Advanced IT displays continued to benefit from increased utilization of excess rigid capacity, more brand participation and marketing that has increased consumer awareness. According to him in 2022, although the market has slowed versus their previous estimate, DSCC expects:

Advanced notebook PC units to increase 66% Y/Y
Advanced monitor units will have increased 187% Y/Y
Advanced tablet units will have increased 31% Y/Y

According to his presentation:

For advanced Monitors: both OLEDs and MiniLEDs are expected to enjoy rapid growth, with OLEDs rising at a 91% CAGR from 2021-2026 and MiniLEDs rising at a 64% CAGR. MiniLEDs are expected to continue to lead with the majority share through the forecast period. An open cell LCD panel combined with MiniLED backlights is very cost effective versus OLED.
For advanced notebook PCs: both OLEDs and MiniLEDs are expected to enjoy rapid growth with OLEDs rising at a 50% CAGR and MiniLEDs rising at 43% CAGR and the category rising at a 48% CAGR from 2021 – 2026. While MiniLEDs will maintain a rigid form factor, OLEDs are expected to be available in rigid, rigid + thin film encapsulation (TFE) and foldable form factors from 2023- 2024. TFE eliminates the top glass, reducing thickness and weight. From 2023, OLED is expected to have higher share.
For Advanced Tablets: DSCC forecast OLED tablets to grow at a 46% CAGR from 2021-2026 to ~19 million units with MiniLED tablets declining at a 52% CAGR as a result of their expectation that Apple will enter the OLED tablet category with an 11” OLED tablet in 2024.

Despite the slower growth for IT applications versus their original expectations, DSCC still foresees Advanced IT displays as being poised to grow as brands offer more options with competitive price points and strong value propositions.
According to DSCC's forecasts and outlook, the flat panel display market is expected to decline in 2022 after 2 years of growth. Technology advances in OLED, Quantum Dot and MiniLED will help suppliers to differentiate products and drive growth in Advanced TV, monitor, notebook and tablet markets. (SD)

Sweta Dash, President, Dash-Insights
Sweta Dash is the founding president of Dash-Insights, a market research and consulting company specializing in the display industry. For more information, contact [email protected] or visit www.dash-insights.com

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Quantum Dot and MiniLED: Can it empower AR/VR/MR displays?

11/9/2022

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Meta introduced its “Meta Quest Pro” high-end mixed reality device at the Meta Connect event this month. It is expected to be available for purchase in October 25th for $1499.99. According to Meta, they believe “VR devices will help usher in the next computing platform - becoming as ubiquitous as laptops and tablets are today- and that people will use them in their everyday lives to access the metaverse”.
Apple’s CEO Tim Cook, in his interview in Europe with Bright publications in October said,
“AR is a profound technology that will affect everything. …We are really going to look back and think about how we once lived without AR”.
As it can be seen there is a surge in interests and investments in AR/VR market due to the recent focus by industry leading companies such as Meta, Microsoft, Apple and others. To make it a reality, there is a real need for many technological developments and multiple challenges need to be resolved. Display technology developments are critical for AR/VR/MR devices.
The Meta Quest Pro uses pancake optics which reduces the depth of optical module by 40% while providing clear and sharp visuals, according to Meta. Two LCD displays with local dimming and quantum dot technology provide richer and more vivid color. With the use of miniLED backlights (500 individual LEDs) the display has 75% more contrast compared to the MetaQuest 2. The Meta Quest Pro also has 37% more pixels per inch (PPI) and 10% greater pixels per degree than Meta Quest 2, making everything from reading text to playing games look better.
The company also reported 25% improvements in full-field visual sharpness in the center view, 50% improvements in the peripheral region, and 1.3X larger color gamut than Meta Quest 2. Meta Quest Pro uses dual LCDs (2.48”), with miniLED backlight and Quantum dot technology, 1800 x 1920 resolution per eye and 1200 PPI pixel density. This is the first time Meta has introduced a QD and MiniLED dual LCD-based device.

Quantum Dot & MiniLED technology Empowers LCD
As it has been seen in applications such as TV, IT, Tablets and other products, by the use of muti-zone blinking backlights, miniLED with QD (Quantum Dots) has enabled LCD to have higher brightness, very high contrast, excellent HDR, thin form-factor, superior power efficiency and display performance close to OLED. MiniLED-based products with QDs with higher picture quality, more competitive prices, higher product availability and brands focus (for product differentiation) have resulted in higher shipment growth for large LCD products for TV, IT, gaming and other products in the last few years.
Can QD and MiniLED also empower LCD for AR/VR /MR devices? Meta being the leader in terms of shipments in VR market, more brands may follow Meta. The cost of the combination of miniLED and QD can be high, limiting its use only to high end enterprise devices especially in the near term. The benefit of having QD and miniLED to improve visual performance can still help to increase adoption rates.
QD technology can help to increase color gamut, give higher brightness, increase power efficiency and improve speed. Immersive AR/VR/MR displays can use QD to improve visual performance. Nanosys is the world’s leading pioneer in the commercial application of Quantum Dot technology. According to Jeff Yurek, VP of Marketing at Nanosys,
“Speed is an underappreciated advantage for quantum dots in displays of all types. It turns out the speed of the backlight really matters. For optimal image quality, you really want the backlight and the LCD to be in perfect sync. Quantum dots enable this with ultra-fast, nanosecond response times. But, with slower phosphors like KSF, you are faced with a choice: either turn the backlight on before you open the LCD shutter, which exacerbates haloing artifacts and increases lag time, or, turn the backlight on in sync with the LCD shutter and live with cyan instead of white while the red warms up. These artifacts are visible even at 24p but when you start talking about refresh rates over 90hz and pairing that with hundreds or thousands of miniLED zones, speed becomes critical”.

Display requirements are different for VR (and pass-through AR) and see-through AR. For VR (and pass-through AR) most displays are based on TFT LCD and AMOLED. In general, immersive display needs are as follows:

High resolutions (high pixel density to reduce or eliminate the screen door effect).
High brightness
High contrast
Wide color gamut
High refresh rates (and short duty cycle to reduce motion sickness).
High PPD (Pixel Per degree)
Widest Field of View (FOV)
Compact design

See-through AR needs very high brightness display to match the ambient light; the display needs to be small and power efficient to make the headset thinner and lightweight. Currently all headsets for see-through AR are based on microdisplay (DLP, Micro-LCD, LCoS, Micro OLED) or laser beam scanner (LBS).

LCD: Strong presence through high PPI and MiniLED
LCD is the leading technology in the VR market. Advanced LTPS TFT LCD is generally used for VR for high resolutions displays. It has already achieved more than 1200PPI. Companies such as JDI are targeting 2000 to 2500PPI resolutions in the next two to three years. Local dimming backlights with miniLED can lower power consumption and optimize the image for higher contrast. Fast response LC (liquid crystal) with high-speed backlight switching can offer a clearer image. According to JDI an impulse display, needed for better motion display, is realized by applying a global blinking backlight. The efficiency of backlight blinking results in shortening the display “on” time and minimizes “ghosting”, thereby providing a clearer image. According to LCD suppliers:
LCD is the best technology for 2-3-inch size displays for VR-HMD as it provides a wide field of view (HFV), which is a critical factor for an immersive VR-HMD.
Companies are also starting to use miniLED backlights for LCD for higher contrast and lower power consumption. The Varjo Aero ($1900) has two miniLED LCDs and the Pimax Reality (12K QLED) ($2399) has two miniLED LCD panels (200Hz refresh rates and QD layer for high color gamut, 6K per eye resolution with 1200PPI) and are already in the market.

OLED on Silicon (SiOLED): Poised for dominance with very high resolution & high luminance
OLED on Silicon (OLED Micro Display) are viewed through an optical system and generally have higher pixel density than AMOLEDs. OLED on silicon (SiOLED) is a common technology used to implement MicroOLEDs. It can be used both for VR and see-through AR. MicroOLED displays can be generally categorized into RGB OLED and White OLED (WOLED) types. However high resolution RGB OLED microdisplays still face challenges due to a shadow effect during the deposition process using FMM (Fine Metal Mask).
White OLED uses a color filter to generate image which can achieve high PPI (4000PPI). However the color filter absorbs a very high percentage of the emitted light and that limits maximum brightness for microOLED. Sony has been using microLens technology to increase the peak brightness of its OLED microdisplays.
Kopin has developed a trio stack architecture to increase brightness.
eMagin has developed a direct patterning RGB OLED micro display. It has achieved 10,000 nits of brightness in a WUXGA (1920 x 1200) OLED microdisplay, made by direct patterning (eliminating the color filter) of red, green, and blue(RGB) sub-pixel emitters on the backplane. The red and green emitters were made from phosphorescent materials and blue from fluorescent material. This has enabled significant improvement in efficiency and lifetime. They have roadmap to develop 30,000 nits full color peak luminance.
According to DSCC forecast, LCD will have the dominant shipment share in the AR/VR market up to 2025. By 2027, SiOLED will represent 48% of all AR/VR display shipments. DSCC expects Apple’s new Reality Pro Product (2H 2023) to have dual microOLED plus one AMOLED display with a pixel density of >3000 PPI. Apple’s adoption of SiOLED technology and technology progress will help SiOLED to gain higher market share in future. According to the company forecast, VR (including pass through AR) will be a much bigger market for display suppliers than see through AR.

QD and MiniLED LCD-based VR/MR devices by the use of muti zone blinking backlights, can enable LCD to have higher brightness, very high contrast, excellent HDR, compact form-factor, superior power efficiency and higher display performance. MiniLED-based products with QDs with higher picture quality, more competitive prices, higher product availability and brands focus (for product differentiation) can empower LCD to keep higher market share and also help to open up new opportunities for higher revenue. (SD)
Sweta Dash, President, Dash-Insights
Sweta Dash is the founding president of Dash-Insights, a market research and consulting company specializing in the display industry. For more information, contact [email protected] or visit www.dash-insights.com

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Foldable OLED Smartphones: On a Growth Path

11/9/2022

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In the year 2022, foldable smartphone shipments are expected to follow a growth path, while the total global smartphone market is expected to decline. The total market is impacted by inflation, continued geopolitical risks and supply chain constraints.
New product introductions, innovative designs, increased reliability, better features, higher performances and competitive pricing are helping to drive foldable smartphones demand. The biggest potential advantage of foldable smartphone is that they can offer “thin, light, larger display in a smaller form factor”. In a market with slowing demand, foldable phones offer potentially higher growth, ASPs, revenue and profitability opportunities for panel and smartphone suppliers. Foldable smartphones can also offer new opportunities for OLED fabs utilization rates due to an increase in the number of displays, increases in display sizes and display area.
On August 10th this year Samsung announced its fourth generation foldables Z Flip4 and Galaxy Z Fold4 with enhanced productivity, customizable form factors and upgraded performance. The next day on August 11th, Xiaomi introduced its second generation thinner foldable, Mix Fold 2, in China. The same day Motorola launched a new clamshell smartphone with significantly upgraded specs, the Motorola, Razr 5G for the Chinese market. With more robust innovative form factors, better price performance and technology advancements, foldable phones are forecast to follow a growth path over the next five years, but they will occupy a small percentage share of the total global smartphone market. They are expected to have a stronger presence in the premium market.

Evolving Form-factors
Royole was the first company to introduce foldable phones in Q4 2018, but the market really started in Q4 2019 with Samsung’s entrance. Foldable phones have come a long way from the first-generation phones from Samsung and Huawei which were introduced in 2019 with foldable OLEDs. In the beginning, the industry had in-fold, out-fold, clamshells and other designs. First generation products also had many issues with foldable hinges, flexible covers, increased thickness and bulkier designs. Prices were in $2000 range. Also, flagship phones with flexible OLEDs had better features with lower prices making foldable phones less competitive.
Starting from 2020, the industry mostly focused on in-fold and clam-shell designs. Many new suppliers also joined, such as Motorola and Xiaomi. The introduction of the Z-Flip from Samsung in 2020, with a new innovative flip design, a thinner form factor, higher robustness with UTG (Ultra-Thin Glass), and a lower price point, helped to increase interest and sales.
In the initial stages, higher prices were a big challenge for foldables. By 2H 2020, Samsung had its first LTPO display based Z fold2, with a 120Hz, 6.23” front display, 7.6” main display and UTG, powered by Samsung Display’s technology developments. The clamshell design was the first product to use UTG, resulting in a smaller seam, more protection for the display and the smartphone also had a lower price.

Better Price Performance
On March, 2020, Samsung announced Z Flip, its second foldable smartphone, a newly designed foldable flip phone based on flexible AMOLED display but with an ultrathin glass cover rather than plastic. At a price of $1380, Z Flip was cheaper than Samsung’s first foldable with bigger screen size, Galaxy Fold ($1980), but was more expensive than the Galaxy S20($999,99).
According to Omdia press release in March 2022, “Due to the high price barrier, sales of early foldable smartphones were limited. However, from the second half of 2021, sales volume increased rapidly with annual foldable smartphone shipments reaching 9 million units in 2021, up 309% year-on-year. Of these, 8 million units were sold in the second half of 2021, accounting for 89% of the total shipment in 2021.Samsung is the largest original equipment manufacturer (OEM) in the foldable smartphone market. To date, Samsung has shipped over 10 million units, accounting for more than 88% of the foldable smartphone market, which is also the only brand in the market with over 10 million foldable smartphones.” According to the company, in 2021, Samsung’s Z Flip3 5G became the word’s largest foldable smartphone model. Z Flip3 5G was released at $999, $380 cheaper than its predecessor. Through hardware upgrade and price cut Samsung was able to ship more Z Flip3 5G units in 2021 compared to the predecessors in 2020. The launch price of the Galaxy Z Fold3 was $1800, which was $200 cheaper than 2020 model of Z Fold2. Recently introduced Samsung Z Flip4 and Z Fold4 foldable smartphones launch prices were same as last year.

More Advanced Technology
The commercialization of foldable smartphones up to now has been based on foldable AMOLED (active-matrix organic light emitting diode) display technology. For a foldable display, all the layers within the panel should be foldable, durable, and transparent with a total bending radius of less than 1.5 mm. That is why new components are needed for foldable OLEDs. Foldable requirements are as follows:

Flexible Windows: Film/UTG. Cover windows need to have hybrid organic/inorganic coating with excellent mechanical and thermal properties (Polyimide (PI))/Resilient Flexible UTG (Chemical Strengthening)
Thin Polarizer: Thin Flexible Polarizer/Polarizer Less to reduce thickness
Flexible Touchscreen: Add On/On-cell Reduce thickness and improve flexibility (Needs non-ITO materials such as silver nanowire or metal mesh)
Flexible Adhesive: OCA/OCR
Reliability (to withstand more than 200K times bending/folding).

Bendability has a trade off with durability and robustness. Bending of a very thin film after a certain point can generate a crease or lead to deformation. The display industry has developed numerous materials and processing challenges to balance bendability with durability. The foldable design revolution is still facing high costs, high price, design complexity and a lack of standardization, limiting the ability to create consumer-acceptable mainstream solutions.
Samsung Display is the dominant supplier for the foldable OLED panel and will continue to dominate in next five years according to DSCC data shown at the SID/DSCC 2022 Business Conference. BOE is in the number 2 position and Visionox and CSOT are fighting for the number three position.

Higher Adoption Rate
Foldable represents the most innovative segment of the market. Although they have not yet captured a significant share of the total smartphone market, they have a strong presence in the premium market.
According to a DSCC blog by David Naranjo, Senior Director in July, 2022:
“For 2022, we expect OLED smartphone panels to decrease 4% Y/Y to 612M panels. Flexible OLED smartphone panels are expected to increase 2% Y/Y and account for a 57%unit share, up from 54% in 2021. Rigid OLED smartphone panels are expected to decline 14% Y/Y and account for a 40%unit share, down from 44% in 2021. Foldable OLED smartphone panels are expected to increase 102% Y/Y for a 3%unit share, up from 2% in 2021”.
The revenue share is expected to be even higher. As David Naranjo noted in his blog,
“On a smartphone device revenue basis, we expect rigid OLED smartphone device revenue to decline 10% Y/Y with a 23% revenue share, down from 26% in 2021. Flexible AMOLED smartphone device revenue is expected to decline 1% Y/Y and maintain a 71% revenue share. Foldable AMOLED smartphone device revenue is expected to increase 82% Y/Y with a 5% revenue share, up from 3% in 2021”.

Samsung has been the main driver for advancing the foldable market especially empowered by the technology development of Samsung Display and other partners.
According to Dr. TM Roh, President and Head of Mobile eXperience Business at Samsung Electronics as presented in Samsung’s recent press release.
“Through our unwavering focus and industry leadership, excitement for the foldables continues to grow. We’ve successfully transformed this category from a radical project to a mainstream device lineup enjoyed by millions worldwide.”
He also said in another recent write up,
“Last year, we saw almost 10 million foldable smartphones shipped worldwide. That’s an industry increase of more than 300% from 2020, and I predict this fast-paced growth will continue. We are reaching the moment where these foldable devices are becoming widespread and staking a bigger claim in the overall smartphone market”.
New foldable products, 5G capabilities, innovative designs and evolving form factors have created a strong growth path especially with early adaptors driving demands. However, long term success by gaining even significantly more share of smartphone market will require lower costs, lower prices, better standardization, and form factors that will be accepted by mainstream consumers. Foldable OLED smartphones can offer potentially higher growth, ASP, revenue, and profitability opportunities for panel and smartphone suppliers. (SD)
Sweta Dash is the founding president of Dash-Insights, a market research and consulting company specializing in the display industry. For more information, contact [email protected] or visit www.dash-insights.com

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Quantum Dot Display: Evolving and Expanding in the TV Market

11/9/2022

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Quantum Dot display technology is continuously evolving with new processes, new materials and new product offerings that havw enabled it to have higher market share in the TV market.
Macroeconomic uncertainties, war in the Ukraine and high inflation; all are impacting TV demand resulting in drastic panel price reductions, cut in fab utilization rates and higher inventories. At the same time the “Advanced TV” market is still expected to grow in 2022 and beyond. Consumers are buying bigger TVs and prioritizing picture quality. QD technology developments have resulted in higher picture quality, combined with lower panel prices which can open up new and higher demand opportunities for QD TV.
Advanced TV: Demand Growing According to a published blog by DSCC written by co-founder Yoshio Tamura in July,
“The fab utilization rates of FPD manufacturers have fallen to near record lows, and the average LCD fab utilization rate, which reached 90% last year, fell below 75% in June 2022. As of June, the prices for all sizes under 65” fell below cash cost. This has a great impact on the fab utilization rate.”
A press release from Omdia in July also said,
“Global display makers’ capacity utilization is expected to drop to 73% in 3Q22; a record low for the sector since 2012 according to the latest forecast from Omdia”.
The display industry periodically suffers from alternating supply/demand imbalances known as the crystal cycle. Historical data has shown that extreme panel price reductions due to oversupply can help in higher adoption of new technology in the long run. Drastic panel price declines for LCD can lead to lower prices for QD-based TVs in the holiday season this year and also in the beginning of 2023.
DSCC published blog written by cofounder Bob O’Brien in July said,
“Advanced TV shipments are expected to grow by a 19% CAGR through 2026 to 37.4M units generating $35.6 billion in revenue. For 2022, we expect Advanced TV shipments to increase by 19% Y/Y to 23.4 million units and expect Advanced TV revenues to increase by 11% to $30.2 billion”.
DSCC report defines an “Advanced TV” as any TV with an advanced display technology feature, including all OLED TVs, 8K LCD TVs and all LCD TVs with quantum dot technology.

QDEF: Technology Evolving & ExpandingThe first generation QD enhancement film (QDEF) enabled LCDs to have better color purity, wider color gamut, and offer a brighter and more immersive HDR experience while maintaining power efficiency for TV applications. Most of the top TV manufacturers such as Samsung, LGE, Sony, TCL, Hisense, Vizio, and Skyworth have already adopted QD display technology in their TVs. It has enabled LCD technology to reinvent itself and has created growth opportunities in the TV market especially when combined with miniLED backlights.

Nanosys introduced the aerobically stable xQDEF technology in 2021. The xQDEF diffuser plate brings together the color and brightness performance of QDEF with precise light diffusion necessary for perfect contrast levels in miniLED and full-array-local-dimming (FALD) LCDs. An xQDEF diffuser plate simplifies the display assembly process. It can be added to any FALD backlight TV enabling lower cost mainstream products with QD at <$500. It is already in mass production. According to Jeff Yurek, Nanosys VP of Marketing,
"xQDEF was used in over 1M TV sets last year and we are seeing increased traction this year with more brands deploying xQDEF in their TV lineups. We were also honored to win a display component of the year award for xQDEF at DisplayWeek 2022."

MiniLED Plus QD: Growth Accelerating
By the use of multi zone dimmable backlights, miniLED with QD has enabled LCD to have higher brightness, very high contrast, excellent HDR, thin form-factor, superior power efficiency and display performance close to OLED. According to Jeff, Yurek, from Nanosys,
”I have yet to find a miniLED TV set without Quantum Dot technology. Essentially seeing a 100% attach rate for miniLED and Quantum Dot display technologies”.
TCL introduced high performance and ultra-slim TVs based on its third generation miniLED backlight technology “OD zero” in 2021. Samsung's introduction of “Neo QLED” miniLED backlight-based 8K and 4K TV models in various sizes helped to increase shipments. LGE also adopted QD miniLED technology with its QNED products (4K and 8K). Samsung and LGE introduced TVs with gaming features (especially 4K gaming at 120Hz): with low response times, auto low latency mode and variable refresh rates.
Jeff Yurek from Nanosys pointed out
“Quantum Dots can turn on and off in nanoseconds where other wide gamut phosphor materials can take milliseconds. It may sound trivial but this speed difference becomes critical when you have thousands of zones to control and especially when you start pushing frame rates up over 100hz as gamers want to do these days. Quantum dots let you optimize the backlight to the absolute bleeding edge of contrast and super high refresh rates – key features for premium monitors and TVs.”
MiniLED-based products with QDs with higher picture quality, more competitive prices, higher product availability and brands focus will drive shipment growth in 2022 and beyond. Cost has been a major challenge for miniLED TV sets. LCD panel price reductions combined with miniLED backlight cost reduction can help to reduce TV set costs and drive demand further.
According to NPD data in April,
“Over the last two years the average size of installed TVs increased a total of three inches to 47.5-inches. In the five years prior to the pandemic screens grew one inch per year. With home entertainment top of mind, consumers purchasing replacement TVs1 put more importance on screen size and picture quality than ever before.”
Paul Gagnon, VP, of NPD said,
“The strong gains in consumers reporting picture quality as a motivator for purchase are in part driving the sales growth we are seeing in premium and big screen TVs”.
DSCC published data in July showing that MiniLED TV sales are accelerating in 2021 and are expected to more than double in unit shipments in 2022.

QD OLED: Bringing Higher Display Performance
Samsung Display introduced 65-inch and 55-inch TV and 34-inch monitor panels at CES this year based on QD-OLED (QD). Sony and Samsung Electronics are offering QD-OLED TVs and Samsung Electronics and Dell Alienware are offering gaming monitors. QD OLED technology of blue OLED display with a printed quantum dot layer color conversion and sub-pixel level dimming, display can achieve expanded color gamut, higher color volume, and color luminosity.

Exceptional color performance (90% BT2020, 99% DCI-P3)
The slim spectral cones help to achieve an exceptional degree of color purity. The display also provides higher color volume.
The lowest measurable black level of 0.0005 cd/m², achieving a true black.
Uses true RGB additive light to create 'perfect whites' and high luminosity, providing extended HDR experience with an infinite contrast ratio.
No halo, as millions of self-emitting pixels can adjust over all luminance with pinpoint accuracy.
Enables a wider viewing angle due to dome-shaped flux structure and it is also a top-layer emission display.
Provides an almost instantaneous native (GtoG) response time of 0.1ms. Because of its faster response time, QD-Display is able to re-create motion with significantly less blur.

SDC‘s QD Display (QD OLED) received the Display Component of the Year award at DisplayWeek 2022. However, there are still many challenges. Blue emitting materials still have efficiency and lifetime issues. Multiple layers of blue OLED can be used to reduce the problem.
UDC has announced that they expect to meet preliminary target specs with their phosphorescent blue by year-end, which should enable the introduction of their all-phosphorescent RGB stack into the commercial market in 2024. The use of phosphorescent blue can help to reduce multiple layers, increase efficiency and lifetime. Industry news reported that QD-OLED manufacturing yield rates are increasing. QD OLED products have received great reviews in the industry and prices are competitive. The growth will be limited by supply. DSCC expects 500K QD-OLED TVs in 2022, and shipments to increase to 1.5M in 2026, generally limited by SDC’s capacity. SDC is expected to add 77” TVs and 49” monitors in 2023 using MMG configuration.
As Nanosys’s Yurek commented,
“We’ve been hard at work on a new generation of heavy metal free quantum dot color conversion materials that more efficiently absorb blue photons. These materials will improve both front-of-screen performance in terms of color purity and luminance as well as manufacturability.”

QD NanoLED: Coming in Future
NanoLED (QD-LED, ELQD or QD-EL) is an emissive display, which is based on QD’s electroluminescence to directly produce the three primary colors from each pixel. It has the potential to deliver perfect black, better color, and wider viewing angle, true HDR luminance, and higher reliability (inorganic materials). However, the biggest attraction for this next generation display is the potential for ultra-thin flexible displays at low cost based on solution processed printed manufacturing. Solution-printed manufacturing can be done in a smaller factory with a small footprint that can still produce larger size displays. The equipment cost for factory for solution process vs. vacuum deposition will be way lower and does not need billions of dollars investments like 10.5 Gen LCD or 8.5 Gen OLED fabs.
An invited paper from Sharp at Display Week 2022 by Y. Nakanishi, stated that Sharp has been engaged in nanoLED development. There are still two main challenges to overcome.

Materials: Cd-free QDs with high external quantum efficiency (EQE) and narrow full width at half maximum (FWHM) emission are desired. The paper said that, “Recently, nanoLED composed by indium phosphide (InP) for red and green, and ZnTeSe for blue have been reported with reasonable high EQE”.
Fabrication processes: the RGB color patterning process. The industry has been using 3 types of pattering methods: contact printing, inkjet printing and photolithography printing.

The paper reported that heavy metal-free QDs developed by Nanosys, Inc. have been used for Sharp’s display and patterned by photolithography process. The display shows excellent color reproducibility.
According to Nanosys, the native material EQE for nanoLED is already approaching OLED performance. Efficiency is now exceeding 20% for red and the high teens for blue and green, all heavy metal free. NanoLED prototypes are approaching production quality. As Jeff Yurek said
"Timing for NanoLED is sooner than you might think. The technology is making rapid progress and efficiencies are awesome. We see no physics or science limitations on performance and there have been some compelling product-level demos.”

Quantum dot display technology is continuously evolving and expanding bringing in new products with higher performance and lower costs to the TV market. Combined with miniLED backlight and very low LCD panel price it can open up new opportunities and higher demand in the future. (SD)
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Sweta Dash, President, Dash-Insights
Sweta Dash is the founding president of Dash-Insights, a market research and consulting company specializing in the display industry. For more information, contact [email protected] or visit www.dash-insights.com

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