Display​ market outlook and issues were discussed at DSCC’s “The 2022 Global Display Supply Chain Dynamics & Technology Conference” on October 19th. It gave a glimpse of what is happening in the current market and what to expect in next few years.

Flat Panel display Market Slowed Down in 2022
According to Bob O’Brien’s ‘Display Market Outlook” presentation, after two years of great growth, driven by the pandemic, the flat panel market has slowed down. While 2021 was the best year in flat panel display history with the biggest price and revenue increases, 2022 will be a year with double digit revenue decline and no area growth. TVs, mobile phones, monitors, notebooks, and tablets, are all expected to decline in units and revenue in 2022. High inventory in the supply chain needs to be digested and panel suppliers are cutting utilization rates.
Recovery is expected in 2023. Still global recession, macro downturn and demand constraints can bring downside risk. Stronger growth in China stimulated by lower prices especially in the TV market can bring upside potential to the forecast. For the long-term forecast up to 2026, LCD units and revenue are expected to decline slowly and LCD area growth will slow to 3% CAGR with OLED gaining share. OLED is expected to have double digit percentage area growth, but revenue growth will be slower as prices decline.

LCD and OLED battling for Premium TV Market: MiniLED & QDOLED pushing the Technology
TV is the most important application for the flat panel display market as it commands 70% share in terms of display area. It will increase its share to 72% of display area by 2024 according to Bob O’Brien’s “TV Market Outlook” presentation. According to his presentation, pandemic demand drove the biggest increase ever for LCD TV panel prices.  After the pandemic demand dried up the industry saw the fastest price declines in history. TV panel prices are stabilizing at new all-time lows.
Panel price increases in 2021 also drove the first ever price increase in TV sets in the U.S market. TV inflation peaked in August 2021 at 13% but by August 2022 prices were down by 20%. Lower TV prices driven by lower demand and lower LCD panel prices are making TV set prices for the holiday season more competitive.
A Strong Technology Battle in TVThe technology battle is strong in premium TV market with a three-way battle between MiniLED LCD, white OLED and QDOLED.  DSCC's Advanced TV segment includes QDEF, WOLED, 8KLCD, MiniLED LCD and QDOLED. Except for QDEF, all are much higher costs than standard LCD. According to the DSCC cost model comparison, MiniLED LCD cost is on a par with WOLED with a range that is higher or lower depending on the number of LEDs and QDOLED has the highest cost.
According to the TV Market Outlook presentation, OLED TV has gained share with new screen sizes of 48” and 83”. In Q2 2022 OLED TV<=48” grew 50% Y/Y. Advanced LCD TV lost unit share in 2021 due to higher panel prices. In 2022 LCD is regaining unit share due to lower panel prices. MiniLED LCD TVs grew rapidly in 2021 but continue to be outsold by OLED TVs. According to Bob’s presentation:

• The worldwide TV market will continue to be dominated by LCD technologies, including MiniLED.
• Unit demand will be flat, but screen sizes will continue to increase, driving area growth at a 5% CAGR (‘19-’26) for total TV.
• OLED TV units/area will grow at a 23%/23% CAGR (‘19-’26).
• LCD TV units will decline at a 1% CAGR but area will grow at 4%.

  DSCC expects Advanced TVs for all technologies to grow by 20% CAGR from 2019-2026. LCD is expected to grow by 19% driven by MiniLED and 8K. OLED will grow by 22% with QDOLED and Inkjet Printed OLED adding to WOLED. MicroLED will remain a miniscule fraction of Advanced TV units.
TVs using Quantum Dot technology are forecast to grow through the forecasted period up to 2026. DSCC expects growth in TVs using quantum dot technology to have 16% CAGR from 2019-2026. QD will be the dominant configuration on MiniLED TVs.
According to Ross Young’s presentation on “Display Capex and Manufacturing Technology”, Samsung Display (SDC) is planning to add another 30K QDOLED capacity to its current mass production of 8.5 Gen Fab with 30K capacity. He presented that new QDOLED investment is expected to be decided in 1H23. New phosphorescent blue OLED emitters would significantly help to reduce costs and would expand existing capacity by reducing the number of blue layers. Ross’s presentation highlighted that currently in QDOLEDS, QDs are deposited on a separate color filter (CF) substrate. In future it is expected to shift to QD on encapsulation (QOE), in which a single substrate is used and the QDs are deposited over the TFE. By this process brightness can be increased by 20%.
MicroLED TVs have been available since 2020 but prices are higher than $100K. MicroLED is expected to show strong growth but it is forecast by DSCC to have only 0.1% of unit volume of Advanced TV in 2026.

OLED Technology and Capacity Enhancements: Increasing MiniLED and OLED competition in IT MarketRoss Young, in his “Display Capex and Manufacturing Technology” presentation, said that big improvements are coming in OLED performance. Tandem RGB OLED stacks, Phosphorescent blue OLED emitters, color filter on encapsulation (CoE), rigid plus TFE (Thin Film Encapsulation) substrate, LTPO/Variable refresh and many other technology enhancements will boost OLED performance in future. At the same time G8.7 substrates, IGZO backplanes and rigid plus TFE will help to reduce costs.
According to his presentation, from 2025 to the 2027 time frame, SDC, BOE, and LGD will have 8.7 Tandem RGB stack fabs with Rigid plus TFE (hybrid) substrate. While SDC and LGD are planning for IGZO backplanes, BOE will have LTPO backplanes. Tandem stacks are expected to provide higher efficiency, higher life time and reduced burn-in but there are challenges with higher Capex (8.7 tandem stack tools expected cost $1 billion for 15K substrates/month) and lower yields.
Rigid+ TFE substrate can also generate real cost savings by eliminating a number of process steps and equipment. Eliminating the top substrate can significantly reduce the weight and thickness vs rigid OLEDs. High mobility IGZO backplanes have many advantages, Ross explained, including low leakage, low temperature process, low off current, good uniformity, high transparency, low refresh drive, variable refresh rates, fewer masks (7 to 10), scalable to larger sizes and a single fab could address all display applications.
It also has many challenges including sensitivy to process and materials and bias stress stability which is highly sensitive to small variations in oxygen concentration. Advanced IGZO may have twice as many masks compared to traditional IGZO backplanes. According to DSCC data, LTPO at G8.7 is only 5% more cost than Advanced IGZO due to high mask counts and additional process steps in Advanced IGZO fabs. G6 has highest price per square meter. Traditional IGZO on G8.7 rigid+ TFE is 45% less per square meter. G8.7 Advanced IGZO is 11% less and G8.7 LTPO is 6% less.
The “Display Cost and Price Outlook” presentation from Yoshio Tamura gave a cost comparison of display products. In his presentation, he said
“SDC is now aggressively promoting rigid OLED for notebook PCs. In addition, Apple is said to be launching an OLED tablet in 2024 by using a hybrid RGB OLED display next to its current MiniLED product. Apple is striving for thinner, brighter and longer lifetime OLED displays with new advanced technologies such as tandem, rigid TFE and better mobility. Rigid and Hybrid OLED displays will have to compete with thinner/lighter LCDs, Oxide LCDs, LTPS LCDs and QHD/UHD LCDs especially in the high end of the notebook PC market to fill in their new G8.5 to 8.7G fabs from 2024”.
David Naranjo, in his “IT Display Market Outlook” said that 2020 and 2021 had seen a surge in units and revenue as a result of the pandemic. 2022 is estimated to see a decline of 13% Y/Y in units and 23% Y/Y decline in revenue as a result of these macroeconomic issues and weakened consumer and commercial demand. He also presented that Advanced IT displays continued to benefit from increased utilization of excess rigid capacity, more brand participation and marketing that has increased consumer awareness. According to him in 2022, although the market has slowed versus their previous estimate, DSCC expects:

• Advanced notebook PC units to increase 66% Y/Y
• Advanced monitor units will have increased 187% Y/Y
• Advanced tablet units will have increased 31% Y/Y

According to his presentation:

• For advanced Monitors: both OLEDs and MiniLEDs are expected to enjoy rapid growth, with OLEDs rising at a 91% CAGR from 2021-2026 and MiniLEDs rising at a 64% CAGR. MiniLEDs are expected to continue to lead with the majority share through the forecast period. An open cell LCD panel combined with MiniLED backlights is very cost effective versus OLED.
• For advanced notebook PCs: both OLEDs and MiniLEDs are expected to enjoy rapid growth with OLEDs rising at a 50% CAGR and MiniLEDs rising at 43% CAGR and the category rising at a 48% CAGR from 2021 – 2026. While MiniLEDs will maintain a rigid form factor, OLEDs are expected to be available in rigid, rigid + thin film encapsulation (TFE) and foldable form factors from 2023- 2024. TFE eliminates the top glass, reducing thickness and weight. From 2023, OLED is expected to have higher share.
• For Advanced Tablets: DSCC forecast OLED tablets to grow at a 46% CAGR from 2021-2026 to ~19 million units with MiniLED tablets declining at a 52% CAGR as a result of their expectation that Apple will enter the OLED tablet category with an 11” OLED tablet in 2024.

Despite the slower growth for IT applications versus their original expectations, DSCC still foresees Advanced IT displays as being poised to grow as brands offer more options with competitive price points and strong value propositions.
According to DSCC's forecasts and outlook, the flat panel display market is expected to decline in 2022 after 2 years of growth. Technology advances in OLED, Quantum Dot and MiniLED will help suppliers to differentiate products and drive growth in Advanced TV, monitor, notebook and tablet markets.  (SD)

​Sweta Dash, President, Dash-Insights
Sweta Dash is the founding president of Dash-Insights, a market research and consulting company specializing in the display industry. For more information, contact sweta@dash-insights.com or visit www.dash-insights.com

Meta introduced its “Meta Quest Pro” high-end mixed reality device at the Meta Connect event this month. It is expected to be available for purchase in October 25th for $1499.99. According to Meta, they believe “VR devices will help usher in the next computing platform - becoming as ubiquitous as laptops and tablets are today- and that people will use them in their everyday lives to access the metaverse”.
Apple’s CEO Tim Cook, in his interview in Europe with Bright publications in October said,
“AR is a profound technology that will affect everything. …We are really going to look back and think about how we once lived without AR”.
As it can be seen there is a surge in interests and investments in AR/VR market due to the recent focus by industry leading companies such as Meta, Microsoft, Apple and others. To make it a reality, there is a real need for many technological developments and multiple challenges need to be resolved. Display technology developments are critical for AR/VR/MR devices.
The Meta Quest Pro uses pancake optics which reduces the depth of optical module by 40% while providing clear and sharp visuals, according to Meta. Two LCD displays with local dimming and quantum dot technology provide richer and more vivid color. With the use of miniLED backlights (500 individual LEDs) the display has 75% more contrast compared to the MetaQuest 2. The Meta Quest Pro also has 37% more pixels per inch (PPI) and 10% greater pixels per degree than Meta Quest 2, making everything from reading text to playing games look better.
The company also reported 25% improvements in full-field visual sharpness in the center view, 50% improvements in the peripheral region, and 1.3X larger color gamut than Meta Quest 2. Meta Quest Pro uses dual LCDs (2.48”), with miniLED backlight and Quantum dot technology, 1800 x 1920 resolution per eye and 1200 PPI pixel density. This is the first time Meta has introduced a QD and MiniLED dual LCD-based device.

Quantum Dot & MiniLED technology Empowers LCD
As it has been seen in applications such as TV, IT, Tablets and other products, by the use of muti-zone blinking backlights, miniLED with QD (Quantum Dots) has enabled LCD to have higher brightness, very high contrast, excellent HDR, thin form-factor, superior power efficiency and display performance close to OLED. MiniLED-based products with QDs with higher picture quality, more competitive prices, higher product availability and brands focus (for product differentiation) have resulted in higher shipment growth for large LCD products for TV, IT, gaming and other products in the last few years.
Can QD and MiniLED also empower LCD for AR/VR /MR devices? Meta being the leader in terms of shipments in VR market, more brands may follow Meta. The cost of the combination of miniLED and QD can be high, limiting its use only to high end enterprise devices especially in the near term. The benefit of having QD and miniLED to improve visual performance can still help to increase adoption rates.
QD technology can help to increase color gamut, give higher brightness, increase power efficiency and improve speed. Immersive AR/VR/MR displays can use QD to improve visual performance. Nanosys is the world’s leading pioneer in the commercial application of Quantum Dot technology. According to Jeff Yurek, VP of Marketing at Nanosys,
“Speed is an underappreciated advantage for quantum dots in displays of all types. It turns out the speed of the backlight really matters. For optimal image quality, you really want the backlight and the LCD to be in perfect sync. Quantum dots enable this with ultra-fast, nanosecond response times. But, with slower phosphors like KSF, you are faced with a choice: either turn the backlight on before you open the LCD shutter, which exacerbates haloing artifacts and increases lag time, or, turn the backlight on in sync with the LCD shutter and live with cyan instead of white while the red warms up. These artifacts are visible even at 24p but when you start talking about refresh rates over 90hz and pairing that with hundreds or thousands of miniLED zones, speed becomes critical”.

Display requirements are different for VR (and pass-through AR) and see-through AR. For VR (and pass-through AR) most displays are based on TFT LCD and AMOLED. In general, immersive display needs are as follows:

• High resolutions (high pixel density to reduce or eliminate the screen door effect).
• High brightness
• High contrast
• Wide color gamut
• High refresh rates (and short duty cycle to reduce motion sickness).
• High PPD (Pixel Per degree)
• Widest Field of View (FOV)
• Compact design

See-through AR needs very high brightness display to match the ambient light; the display needs to be small and power efficient to make the headset thinner and lightweight. Currently all headsets for see-through AR are based on microdisplay (DLP, Micro-LCD, LCoS, Micro OLED) or laser beam scanner (LBS).

LCD: Strong presence through high PPI and MiniLED
LCD is the leading technology in the VR market. Advanced LTPS TFT LCD is generally used for VR for high resolutions displays. It has already achieved more than 1200PPI. Companies such as JDI are targeting 2000 to 2500PPI resolutions in the next two to three years. Local dimming backlights with miniLED can lower power consumption and optimize the image for higher contrast. Fast response LC (liquid crystal) with high-speed backlight switching can offer a clearer image. According to JDI an impulse display, needed for better motion display, is realized by applying a global blinking backlight. The efficiency of backlight blinking results in shortening the display “on” time and minimizes “ghosting”, thereby providing a clearer image.  According to LCD suppliers:
LCD is the best technology for 2-3-inch size displays for VR-HMD as it provides a wide field of view (HFV), which is a critical factor for an immersive VR-HMD.
Companies are also starting to use miniLED backlights for LCD for higher contrast and lower power consumption. The Varjo Aero ($1900) has two miniLED LCDs and the Pimax Reality (12K QLED) ($2399) has two miniLED LCD panels (200Hz refresh rates and QD layer for high color gamut, 6K per eye resolution with 1200PPI) and are already in the market.


OLED on Silicon (SiOLED): Poised for dominance with very high resolution & high luminance
OLED on Silicon (OLED Micro Display) are viewed through an optical system and generally have higher pixel density than AMOLEDs. OLED on silicon (SiOLED) is a common technology used to implement MicroOLEDs. It can be used both for VR and see-through AR. MicroOLED displays can be generally categorized into RGB OLED and White OLED (WOLED) types. However high resolution RGB OLED microdisplays still face challenges due to a shadow effect during the deposition process using FMM (Fine Metal Mask).
White OLED uses a color filter to generate image which can achieve high PPI (4000PPI). However the color filter absorbs a very high percentage of the emitted light and that limits maximum brightness for microOLED. Sony has been using microLens technology to increase the peak brightness of its OLED microdisplays. 
Kopin has developed a trio stack architecture to increase brightness.
eMagin has developed a direct patterning RGB OLED micro display. It has achieved 10,000 nits of brightness in a WUXGA (1920 x 1200) OLED microdisplay, made by direct patterning (eliminating the color filter) of red, green, and blue(RGB) sub-pixel emitters on the backplane. The red and green emitters were made from phosphorescent materials and blue from fluorescent material.  This has enabled significant improvement in efficiency and lifetime. They have roadmap to develop 30,000 nits full color peak luminance.
According to  DSCC forecast, LCD will have the dominant shipment share in the AR/VR market up to 2025. By 2027, SiOLED will represent 48% of all AR/VR display shipments. DSCC expects Apple’s new Reality Pro Product (2H 2023) to have dual microOLED plus one AMOLED display with a pixel density of >3000 PPI. Apple’s adoption of SiOLED technology and technology progress will help SiOLED to gain higher market share in future. According to the company forecast, VR (including pass through AR) will be a much bigger market for display suppliers than see through AR.

QD and MiniLED LCD-based VR/MR devices by the use of muti zone blinking backlights, can enable LCD to have higher brightness, very high contrast, excellent HDR, compact form-factor, superior power efficiency and higher display performance. MiniLED-based products with QDs with higher picture quality, more competitive prices, higher product availability and brands focus (for product differentiation) can empower LCD to keep higher market share and also help to open up new opportunities for higher revenue. (SD)
 Sweta Dash, President, Dash-Insights
Sweta Dash is the founding president of Dash-Insights, a market research and consulting company specializing in the display industry. For more information, contact sweta@dash-insights.com or visit www.dash-insights.com

​In the year 2022, foldable smartphone shipments are expected to follow a growth path, while the total global smartphone market is expected to decline. The total market is impacted by inflation, continued geopolitical risks and supply chain constraints.  
New product introductions, innovative designs, increased reliability, better features, higher performances and competitive pricing are helping to drive foldable smartphones demand. The biggest potential advantage of foldable smartphone is that they can offer “thin, light, larger display in a smaller form factor”. In a market with slowing demand, foldable phones offer potentially higher growth, ASPs, revenue and profitability opportunities for panel and smartphone suppliers. Foldable smartphones can also offer new opportunities for OLED fabs utilization rates due to an increase in the number of displays, increases in display sizes and display area.
On August 10th this year Samsung announced its fourth generation foldables Z Flip4 and Galaxy Z Fold4 with enhanced productivity, customizable form factors and upgraded performance. The next day on August 11th, Xiaomi introduced its second generation thinner foldable, Mix Fold 2, in China. The same day Motorola launched a new clamshell smartphone with significantly upgraded specs, the Motorola, Razr 5G for the Chinese market. With more robust innovative form factors, better price performance and technology advancements, foldable phones are forecast to follow a growth path over the next five years, but they will occupy a small percentage share of the total global smartphone market. They are expected to have a stronger presence in the premium market.

Evolving Form-factors
​Royole was the first company to introduce foldable phones in Q4 2018, but the market really started in Q4 2019 with Samsung’s entrance. Foldable phones have come a long way from the first-generation phones from Samsung and Huawei which were introduced in 2019 with foldable OLEDs. In the beginning, the industry had in-fold, out-fold, clamshells and other designs. First generation products also had many issues with foldable hinges, flexible covers, increased thickness and bulkier designs. Prices were in $2000 range. Also, flagship phones with flexible OLEDs had better features with lower prices making foldable phones less competitive.
Starting from 2020, the industry mostly focused on in-fold and clam-shell designs. Many new suppliers also joined, such as Motorola and Xiaomi. The introduction of the Z-Flip from Samsung in 2020, with a new innovative flip design, a thinner form factor, higher robustness with UTG (Ultra-Thin Glass), and a lower price point, helped to increase interest and sales.
In the initial stages, higher prices were a big challenge for foldables. By 2H 2020, Samsung had its first LTPO display based Z fold2, with a 120Hz, 6.23” front display, 7.6” main display and UTG, powered by Samsung Display’s technology developments. The clamshell design was the first product to use UTG, resulting in a smaller seam, more protection for the display and the smartphone also had a lower price.

Better Price Performance
On March, 2020, Samsung announced Z Flip, its second foldable smartphone, a newly designed foldable flip phone based on flexible AMOLED display but with an ultrathin glass cover rather than plastic. At a price of $1380, Z Flip was cheaper than Samsung’s first foldable with bigger screen size, Galaxy Fold ($1980), but was more expensive than the Galaxy S20($999,99).
According to Omdia press release in March 2022, “Due to the high price barrier, sales of early foldable smartphones were limited. However, from the second half of 2021, sales volume increased rapidly with annual foldable smartphone shipments reaching 9 million units in 2021, up 309% year-on-year. Of these, 8 million units were sold in the second half of 2021, accounting for 89% of the total shipment in 2021.Samsung is the largest original equipment manufacturer (OEM) in the foldable smartphone market. To date, Samsung has shipped over 10 million units, accounting for more than 88% of the foldable smartphone market, which is also the only brand in the market with over 10 million foldable smartphones.” According to the company, in 2021, Samsung’s Z Flip3 5G became the word’s largest foldable smartphone model. Z Flip3 5G was released at $999, $380 cheaper than its predecessor. Through hardware upgrade and price cut Samsung was able to ship more Z Flip3 5G units in 2021 compared to the predecessors in 2020. The launch price of the Galaxy Z Fold3 was $1800, which was $200 cheaper than 2020 model of Z Fold2. Recently introduced Samsung Z Flip4 and Z Fold4 foldable smartphones launch prices were same as last year.

More Advanced Technology
The commercialization of foldable smartphones up to now has been based on foldable AMOLED (active-matrix organic light emitting diode) display technology. For a foldable display, all the layers within the panel should be foldable, durable, and transparent with a total bending radius of less than 1.5 mm. That is why new components are needed for foldable OLEDs. Foldable requirements are as follows:

• Flexible Windows: Film/UTG. Cover windows need to have hybrid organic/inorganic coating with excellent mechanical and thermal properties (Polyimide (PI))/Resilient Flexible UTG (Chemical Strengthening)
• Thin Polarizer: Thin Flexible Polarizer/Polarizer Less to reduce thickness
• Flexible Touchscreen: Add On/On-cell Reduce thickness and improve flexibility (Needs non-ITO materials such as silver nanowire or metal mesh)
• Flexible Adhesive: OCA/OCR
• Reliability (to withstand more than 200K times bending/folding).

Bendability has a trade off with durability and robustness. Bending of a very thin film after a certain point can generate a crease or lead to deformation. The display industry has developed numerous materials and processing challenges to balance bendability with durability. The foldable design revolution is still facing high costs, high price, design complexity and a lack of standardization, limiting the ability to create consumer-acceptable mainstream solutions.
Samsung Display is the dominant supplier for the foldable OLED panel and will continue to dominate in next five years according to DSCC data shown at the SID/DSCC 2022 Business Conference. BOE is in the number 2 position and Visionox and CSOT are fighting for the number three position.

​Higher Adoption Rate
Foldable represents the most innovative segment of the market. Although they have not yet captured a significant share of the total smartphone market, they have a strong presence in the premium market.
According to a DSCC blog by David Naranjo, Senior Director in July, 2022:
“For 2022, we expect OLED smartphone panels to decrease 4% Y/Y to 612M panels. Flexible OLED smartphone panels are expected to increase 2% Y/Y and account for a 57%unit share, up from 54% in 2021. Rigid OLED smartphone panels are expected to decline 14% Y/Y and account for a 40%unit share, down from 44% in 2021. Foldable OLED smartphone panels are expected to increase 102% Y/Y for a 3%unit share, up from 2% in 2021”. 
The revenue share is expected to be even higher. As David Naranjo noted in his blog,
“On a smartphone device revenue basis, we expect rigid OLED smartphone device revenue to decline 10% Y/Y with a 23% revenue share, down from 26% in 2021. Flexible AMOLED smartphone device revenue is expected to decline 1% Y/Y and maintain a 71% revenue share. Foldable AMOLED smartphone device revenue is expected to increase 82% Y/Y with a 5% revenue share, up from 3% in 2021”.

Samsung has been the main driver for advancing the foldable market especially empowered by the technology development of Samsung Display and other partners.
According to Dr. TM Roh, President and Head of Mobile eXperience Business at Samsung Electronics as presented in Samsung’s recent press release.  
“Through our unwavering focus and industry leadership, excitement for the foldables continues to grow. We’ve successfully transformed this category from a radical project to a mainstream device lineup enjoyed by millions worldwide.”
He also said in another recent write up,
“Last year, we saw almost 10 million foldable smartphones shipped worldwide. That’s an industry increase of more than 300% from 2020, and I predict this fast-paced growth will continue. We are reaching the moment where these foldable devices are becoming widespread and staking a bigger claim in the overall smartphone market”.
New foldable products, 5G capabilities, innovative designs and evolving form factors have created a strong growth path especially with early adaptors driving demands. However, long term success by gaining even significantly more share of smartphone market will require lower costs, lower prices, better standardization, and form factors that will be accepted by mainstream consumers.  Foldable OLED smartphones can offer potentially higher growth, ASP, revenue, and profitability opportunities for panel and smartphone suppliers. (SD)
Sweta Dash is the founding president of Dash-Insights, a market research and consulting company specializing in the display industry. For more information, contact sweta@dash-insights.com or visit www.dash-insights.com

Quantum Dot display technology is continuously evolving with new processes, new materials and new product offerings that havw enabled it to have higher market share in the TV market.
Macroeconomic uncertainties, war in the Ukraine and high inflation; all are impacting TV demand resulting in drastic panel price reductions, cut in fab utilization rates and higher inventories. At the same time the “Advanced TV” market is still expected to grow in 2022 and beyond. Consumers are buying bigger TVs and prioritizing picture quality. QD technology developments have resulted in higher picture quality, combined with lower panel prices which can open up new and higher demand opportunities for QD TV.
Advanced TV: Demand Growing ​According to a published blog by DSCC written by co-founder Yoshio Tamura in July,
“The fab utilization rates of FPD manufacturers have fallen to near record lows, and the average LCD fab utilization rate, which reached 90% last year, fell below 75% in June 2022. As of June, the prices for all sizes under 65” fell below cash cost. This has a great impact on the fab utilization rate.” 
A press release from Omdia in July also said,
“Global display makers’ capacity utilization is expected to drop to 73% in 3Q22; a record low for the sector since 2012 according to the latest forecast from Omdia”. 
The display industry periodically suffers from alternating supply/demand imbalances known as the crystal cycle. Historical data has shown that extreme panel price reductions due to oversupply can help in higher adoption of new technology in the long run. Drastic panel price declines for LCD can lead to lower prices for QD-based TVs in the holiday season this year and also in the beginning of 2023.
DSCC published blog written by cofounder Bob O’Brien in July said,
“Advanced TV shipments are expected to grow by a 19% CAGR through 2026 to 37.4M units generating $35.6 billion in revenue. For 2022, we expect Advanced TV shipments to increase by 19% Y/Y to 23.4 million units and expect Advanced TV revenues to increase by 11% to $30.2 billion”.
DSCC report defines an “Advanced TV” as any TV with an advanced display technology feature, including all OLED TVs, 8K LCD TVs and all LCD TVs with quantum dot technology.

QDEF: Technology Evolving & ExpandingThe first generation QD enhancement film (QDEF) enabled LCDs to have better color purity, wider color gamut, and offer a brighter and more immersive HDR experience while maintaining power efficiency for TV applications. Most of the top TV manufacturers such as Samsung, LGE, Sony, TCL, Hisense, Vizio, and Skyworth have already adopted QD display technology in their TVs. It has enabled LCD technology to reinvent itself and has created growth opportunities in the TV market especially when combined with miniLED backlights.

Nanosys introduced the aerobically stable xQDEF technology in 2021. The xQDEF diffuser plate brings together the color and brightness performance of QDEF with precise light diffusion necessary for perfect contrast levels in miniLED and full-array-local-dimming (FALD) LCDs. An xQDEF diffuser plate simplifies the display assembly process. It can be added to any FALD backlight TV enabling lower cost mainstream products with QD at <$500. It is already in mass production. According to Jeff Yurek, Nanosys VP of Marketing,
"xQDEF was used in over 1M TV sets last year and we are seeing increased traction this year with more brands deploying xQDEF in their TV lineups. We were also honored to win a display component of the year award for xQDEF at DisplayWeek 2022."

MiniLED Plus QD: Growth Accelerating
By the use of multi zone dimmable backlights, miniLED with QD has enabled LCD to have higher brightness, very high contrast, excellent HDR, thin form-factor, superior power efficiency and display performance close to OLED. According to Jeff, Yurek, from Nanosys,
”I have yet to find a miniLED TV set without Quantum Dot technology. Essentially seeing a 100% attach rate for miniLED and Quantum Dot display technologies”.  
TCL introduced high performance and ultra-slim TVs based on its third generation miniLED backlight technology “OD zero” in 2021. Samsung's introduction of “Neo QLED” miniLED backlight-based 8K and 4K TV models in various sizes helped to increase shipments. LGE also adopted QD miniLED technology with its QNED products (4K and 8K). Samsung and LGE introduced TVs with gaming features (especially 4K gaming at 120Hz): with low response times, auto low latency mode and variable refresh rates.
Jeff Yurek from Nanosys pointed out
“Quantum Dots can turn on and off in nanoseconds where other wide gamut phosphor materials can take milliseconds. It may sound trivial but this speed difference becomes critical when you have thousands of zones to control and especially when you start pushing frame rates up over 100hz as gamers want to do these days. Quantum dots let you optimize the backlight to the absolute bleeding edge of contrast and super high refresh rates – key features for premium monitors and TVs.”
MiniLED-based products with QDs with higher picture quality, more competitive prices, higher product availability and brands focus will drive shipment growth in 2022 and beyond. Cost has been a major challenge for miniLED TV sets. LCD panel price reductions combined with miniLED backlight cost reduction can help to reduce TV set costs and drive demand further.
According to NPD data in April,
“Over the last two years the average size of installed TVs increased a total of three inches to 47.5-inches. In the five years prior to the pandemic screens grew one inch per year. With home entertainment top of mind, consumers purchasing replacement TVs1 put more importance on screen size and picture quality than ever before.”
Paul Gagnon, VP, of NPD said,
“The strong gains in consumers reporting picture quality as a motivator for purchase are in part driving the sales growth we are seeing in premium and big screen TVs”.
DSCC published data in July showing that MiniLED TV sales are accelerating in 2021 and are expected to more than double in unit shipments in 2022. 

QD OLED: Bringing Higher Display Performance
Samsung Display introduced 65-inch and 55-inch TV and 34-inch monitor panels at CES this year based on QD-OLED (QD). Sony and Samsung Electronics are offering QD-OLED TVs and Samsung Electronics and Dell Alienware are offering gaming monitors. QD OLED technology of blue OLED display with a printed quantum dot layer color conversion and sub-pixel level dimming, display can achieve expanded color gamut, higher color volume, and color luminosity.

• Exceptional color performance (90% BT2020, 99% DCI-P3)
• The slim spectral cones help to achieve an exceptional degree of color purity. The display also provides higher color volume.
• The lowest measurable black level of 0.0005 cd/m², achieving a true black.
• Uses true RGB additive light to create 'perfect whites' and high luminosity, providing extended HDR experience with an infinite contrast ratio.
• No halo, as millions of self-emitting pixels can adjust over all luminance with pinpoint accuracy.
• Enables a wider viewing angle due to dome-shaped flux structure and it is also a top-layer emission display.
• Provides an almost instantaneous native (GtoG) response time of 0.1ms. Because of its faster response time, QD-Display is able to re-create motion with significantly less blur.

SDC‘s QD Display (QD OLED) received the Display Component of the Year award at DisplayWeek 2022. However, there are still many challenges. Blue emitting materials still have efficiency and lifetime issues. Multiple layers of blue OLED can be used to reduce the problem. 
UDC has announced that they expect to meet preliminary target specs with their phosphorescent blue by year-end, which should enable the introduction of their all-phosphorescent RGB stack into the commercial market in 2024. The use of phosphorescent blue can help to reduce multiple layers, increase efficiency and lifetime. Industry news reported that QD-OLED manufacturing yield rates are increasing. QD OLED products have received great reviews in the industry and prices are competitive. The growth will be limited by supply. DSCC expects 500K QD-OLED TVs in 2022, and shipments to increase to 1.5M in 2026, generally limited by SDC’s capacity. SDC is expected to add 77” TVs and 49” monitors in 2023 using MMG configuration.  
As Nanosys’s Yurek commented,
“We’ve been hard at work on a new generation of heavy metal free quantum dot color conversion materials that more efficiently absorb blue photons. These materials will improve both front-of-screen performance in terms of color purity and luminance as well as manufacturability.” 

QD NanoLED: Coming in Future
NanoLED (QD-LED, ELQD or QD-EL) is an emissive display, which is based on QD’s electroluminescence to directly produce the three primary colors from each pixel. It has the potential to deliver perfect black, better color, and wider viewing angle, true HDR luminance, and higher reliability (inorganic materials). However, the biggest attraction for this next generation display is the potential for ultra-thin flexible displays at low cost based on solution processed printed manufacturing. Solution-printed manufacturing can be done in a smaller factory with a small footprint that can still produce larger size displays. The equipment cost for factory for solution process vs. vacuum deposition will be way lower and does not need billions of dollars investments like 10.5 Gen LCD or 8.5 Gen OLED fabs.
An invited paper from Sharp at Display Week 2022 by Y. Nakanishi, stated that Sharp has been engaged in nanoLED development. There are still two main challenges to overcome.

• Materials: Cd-free QDs with high external quantum efficiency (EQE) and narrow full width at half maximum (FWHM) emission are desired. The paper said that, “Recently, nanoLED composed by indium phosphide (InP) for red and green, and ZnTeSe for blue have been reported with reasonable high EQE”.
• Fabrication processes: the RGB color patterning process. The industry has been using 3 types of pattering methods: contact printing, inkjet printing and photolithography printing.

The paper reported that heavy metal-free QDs developed by Nanosys, Inc. have been used for Sharp’s display and patterned by photolithography process. The display shows excellent color reproducibility.
According to Nanosys, the native material EQE for nanoLED is already approaching OLED performance. Efficiency is now exceeding 20% for red and the high teens for blue and green, all heavy metal free. NanoLED prototypes are approaching production quality.  As Jeff Yurek said
"Timing for NanoLED is sooner than you might think. The technology is making rapid progress and efficiencies are awesome. We see no physics or science limitations on performance and there have been some compelling product-level demos.”
​
Quantum dot display technology is continuously evolving and expanding bringing in new products with higher performance and lower costs to the TV market. Combined with miniLED backlight and very low LCD panel price it can open up new opportunities and higher demand in the future. (SD)
---
Sweta Dash, President, Dash-Insights
Sweta Dash is the founding president of Dash-Insights, a market research and consulting company specializing in the display industry. For more information, contact sweta@dash-insights.com or visit www.dash-insights.com

Next Generation microLED displays were showcased and discussed at DisplayWeek 2022 through exhibitions, the Business Conference, symposiums and seminars.
MicroLED provides the best features of LCD and OLED display and has the potential to outperform both technologies in terms of color reproducibility, brightness, reliability and low power consumption. With the increased importance of the metaverse, there are greater requirements for next generation display products. Technology innovations are critical in enabling cost reductions and volume production.  
Next Gen Products Requirements:  Increasing
In a keynote speech, Joe O’Keeffe from Meta Reality lab outlined the technology requirements for AR and VR products in the metaverse era. AR glasses need a new generation of displays:

• Wide field of view with resolution to match reality
• Brightness to compete with a sunny day
• No artifacts for the user or neighbor (distortions, uniformity, rainbows, leakage)
• Manage vergence accommodation and eye movement
• Size, weight, style, eye-box with efficiency to enable all day use for all users
• Manufacturable (infrastructure available)
• See through

Looking at AR light sources:
 For microOLED 

• Pro - technology exists today
• Cons - pixel size, brightness and efficiency.

For microLED

• pros - pixel size and brightness,
• cons - efficiency, manufacturing capabilities and capacity

For microLED display, proof of concept projects are increasing but the supply chain doesn’t yet exist. He concluded by saying
“Without the right display technology, there is no Metaverse”.
(for more on O'Keeffe's talk see this article What Displays Have to Do to Bring AR Superpowers
Manufacturing Capabilities:  Improving The microLED supply chain consists of the following steps: GaN epiwafer LED creation, processing of thin film LEDs, mass transfer of the chips to the display backplane & inspection and repair processes. High-speed transfer, assembly technologies, yield and defect management all need to improve and supply chains need to be established before large volume commercialization in consumer products can be done.
According to the symposium paper and presentation from Eric Virey’s, Yole Development:
“Progress in mass transfer over the last 5 years has been spectacular, to the point that, as of early 2022, most industry players no longer see it as a fundamental roadblock for μLED. There is still a lot of work to get to mature, cost-effective, and robust processes fully ready for high volume manufacturing of consumer μLED displays, but there is now a clearer runway”. His paper stated that “As of early 2022, stamp and laser-based tools are available from half a dozen of reputable suppliers”.
An invited paper (50.4) from Y.T. Liu, PlayNitride Display, stated that to realize high performance microLED displays, his firm has established a solution including LED wafer epitaxy, microLED chip process, massive process technology, including PixeLED display and SMAR Tech repair technology. His paper stated that mass repair technology is as important as the mass transfer technology. PlayNitride has also developed a different technology to transfer all three RGB colors; they are transferred to a temporary carrier and then get transferred to a backplane. They can make the spacing less than 2 micron, at the same time, the transfer yield is higher than 99.9% and cost is very low.
Application Market:  Expanding

Companies such as PlayNitride, AUO and Innolux showed a variety of microLED display product demos at DisplayWeek 2022.
PlayNitride:

• 132-inch PixeLED Matrix tiling display banner with 2000nits brightness at the front of the booth.
• 38" transparent (65%–70% transparency) display for automotive application
• 6" 24:9 high resolution (2.5K) display for automotive application
• 58" Passive Matrix display
• 5-inch QD microLED display with touch function
• 39" circular and 1.56" square display for smartwatch
• 0.49" full-color FHD µ-PixeLED microLED micro-display 4,536 PPI, 50,000nits for AR glasses. (Awarded best new display technology @ DisplayWeek 2022)
  

AUO

• Stretchable 141 PPI display (developed with PlayNitride).
• Rollable 14.6" 2K (202 PPI) display with LTPS backplane
• 4" circular display 454x454 (326 PPI)
• Stretchable 6.45" display 900x450 (163 PPI)
• 3" 2000-nits 1280x720 transparent (60% transparency) display

Nanosys/Glo

• 7-inch, 480x270 microLED microdisplay 50,000 nits, auto HUD application

Innolux

• 3” tiled QD microLED display with LTPS backplane 480x 180, 700 nits

The display integration of microLED can use heterogeneous or monolithic integration. In the heterogeneous type, makers use pick and place process to make the microLED arrays, and chips are transferred from an epiwafer or carriers to the display backplane (LTPS or Oxide TFT on a glass or flexible PI substrate). The monolithic integration process involves microLED array and backplane hybridization.

​Technology Innovation:  Continuing

• In an invited paper from AUO by C.L Wang on “High Resolution Stretchable microLED” the company said the RGB microLED display has been demonstrated to withstand mechanical strain during out-of-plane periodically deformation. In this display the high pixel density (>139-PPI) and high strain tolerance of circuits were achieved by utilizing the novel design of the island-bridge structure under a compact pixel arrangement.
• AUO’s W.L Chen’s invited paper on microLED tiling technology discussed the challenges and solutions of different seamless tiling technology. For backplane conducting technologies the paper mentioned several active-matrix designs, structures and suggestions. It also pointed out that production stability, yield performance, cost and side effect are also need to be considered.
• Chen from Tianma presented a paper on “High Performance microLED Transparent Display”. They have developed a 9.38", transparent microLED display with 114ppi and 70% transmittance through an innovative pixel design layout and film layer stacking structure.
• Flemish from Lumileds presented an invited paper on “MicroLED Device Technology for Low Power Wearable Displays”. It discussed efficiencies for InGaN- R, G, B, and AlInGaP-R materials, as well as the dependence of performance on current density and emitter size. Lumileds blue, green, and red microLED devices are based on InGaN and AlInGaP materials systems.
• Paul Martin from Mojo Vision presented a paper on the firm's contact lens-embedded microLED display. According to the paper Mojo Vision’s Contact Lens embedded AR/VR solution will fundamentally alter the way people receive and share information enabling information to be available during activities that require full use of the human body, a concept Mojo Vision calls “Invisible Computing.” (Mojo Vision Developing NanoLEDs)
• Zhu from Applied Materials presented an invited paper on “Progress on Key Innovations in Direct View microLED Manufacturing”. The company has demonstrated a microLED direct view display using single wavelength UV-A microLED and CD free Quantum Dot technology in an innovative pixel architecture (reducing and simplifying mass transfer and repair). (Applied Materials Overcomes Some Challenges in MicroLED for VR)
• Product Commercialization:  ProgressingAccording to Leo Liu’s presentation from DSCC at the Business Conference, in 2021 there are only small volumes of microLED displays in the forecast for TV and AR/VR. He identified three main factors as microLED manufacturing challenges.
  
• Lack of reliable, cost-effective manufacturing equipment
• Materials are also not ready for high volume production
• Need to overcome challenges at low costs for high volume manufacturing.
  

Mathew Meiti from XDC presented at the Business Conference “mass transfer processes bring other kinds of semiconductors to the backplanes of advanced displays with a cost structure that can intercept the trajectory of mainstream consumer displays and, at the same time, set higher expectations for their picture quality, power efficiency, and integrated function”. XDC provides ultraminiature semiconductors for front planes and backplanes as well as mass transfer solutions for the display industry.A presentation from Ian Jenks, SmartKem focused on Organic TFT. SmartKem and Nanosys have announced a joint venture agreement to collaborate on a new generation of low-cost solution printed microLED printed display using SmartKem OTFT and Nanosys microLED and quantum dot nanoLED technologies.
Dr. Tongtong Zhu from Prorotech presented about Gallium Nitride for microLED applications at the Business Conference. The company launched its first set of native InGaN-based R/G/B mono-colour microLED displays with ultrahigh brightness (2 million nits) in April 2022. (Porotech Unlocks A World First In Micro-LED Dynamic Pixel Tuning) According to the company its DynamicPixelTuning with its PoroGaN paves the way to manufacturable integratable monololithic full color RGB display. Porotech received the Best Prototype I-Zone award at DisplayWeek 2022 for its innovative process for achieving color tuning in one monolithic InGaN layer.
According Nikhil Balaram’s presentation from Mojo Vision at the SID/DSCC Business Conference,
"Micro-LEDs will make the dream of the metaverse a reality by offering tiny display systems with the super-high brightness and dynamic range needed for digital to blend perfectly with real, and the energy efficiency, and integration of compute and sensing, to enable the slim and light form factor needed for all-day all-use AR Glasses”.
MicroLED display technology is still evolving and making steady progress towards commercialization. Technology innovations are critical in enabling cost reduction and volume production. (SD)
 
Sweta Dash, President, Dash-Insights
Sweta Dash is the founding president of Dash-Insights, a market research and consulting company specializing in the display industry. For more information, contact sweta@dash-insights.com or visit www.dash-insights.com

The display Industry showcased innovations for next generation displays at the 60th anniversary of the SID Display Week conference in May (San Jose, CA). It was really exciting to attend in-person after three years. The pandemic has changed the industry’s dynamics.
Display revenue surged to record levels due to strong demand from WFH and LFH (work and learn from home) and with the highest level of panel price increases ever seen. It created renewed interest in the IT market for notebooks, tablets and monitors.
Panel suppliers are continuing to add capacity especially in IT panela. Panel price reductions that started in the second half of 2021 are still continuing. Innovations for next generation displays are needed to drive future demand growth.

Changing Dynamics
According to Ross Young’s keynote presentation at the Business Conference, “Display revenue surged 31% YoY in 2021 reaching $164 billion with strong demand from WFH and LFH.

• Notebook PC unit growth: 3% in 2019 followed by 20% and 28% respectively in 2020 and 2021
• Monitor: -2% unit growth in 2019 and then 14% and 5% in 2020 and 2021
• Tablet: -2% unit growth in 2019, jumped to 19% in 2020 and 0% in 2021.
• Mobile phones: -4% unit growth in 2019, -9% in 2020 and 1% in 2021
• TV: 0% unit growth in 2019, -3% in 2020 and -3% in 2021
• Notebook PC revenue growth was 1% in 2019 but jumped to 27% in 2020 and 81% in 2021
• For monitor revenue it was -9% in 2019, but jumped to 26% in 20, and 48% in 2021.

LCD revenues outgrew OLEDs in 2021 on price increases and strong demand in LCD dominated applications. MiniLED LCDs went from a 0% share in 2020 to a 2.2% share in 2021. LCD capacity forecast is 16% higher in 2022 due to Korean manufacturers delaying shutdowns and Chinese manufacturers adding and stretching capacity. In most cases, panel suppliers are adding IT capacity, believing the boom in IT markets will continue. Most of the new fab activity is around OLEDs for IT applications on G8.5-G8.7 glass which represents significant frontplane and backplane challenges.”.
According to DSCC forecasts, demand growth is expected to be flat or down for Q2-Q4 2022 on a Y/Y basis. Prices are expected to be under significant pressure for the rest of 2022.

OLED: Evolving to New Technology 
​Max McDaniel, from Applied Materials in his keynote presentation at the Business conference said
“Technology waves drive growth and investments. The large area OLED wave is coming, it will be in TV and IT in replacement of LCD”.
Technology developments, materials improvements and product innovations combined with capacity expansion and higher competition will help OLED display to gain higher share in future.  McDaniel pointed out that OLED still has three major challenges: brightness, lifetime and cost. Progress has been made in the past year in large area with QD-OLED from Samsung and WOLED from LGD.
In IT markets there will be more adoption in monitor, notebook, tablet and foldable notebook. He said, “Through lots of innovation OLED cost will come down”.
Mike Hack from UDC, in his Business Conference keynote, presented about UDC’s development of Phosphorescent Blue OLED materials. He pointed out some of the benefits of Phosphorescent Blue:

1. Higher efficiency or lower power consumption benefits: extends battery life
2. Higher brightness at same power level, improved HDR performance – makes OLED display peak brightness more comparable with LCDs
3. Lower panel temperature at same brightness. Extends lifetime

UDC has announced that they expect to meet preliminary target specs with their phosphorescent blue by year-end 2022, which should enable the introduction of their all-phosphorescent RGB stack into the commercial market in 2024.
OLED suppliers are investing in 8.5 or 8.7 Gen fabs and high mobility IGZO backplane with low mask count to improve cost. Higher cost saving is also expected by shifting to rigid+ TFE substrate that will have lower capex compared to flexible OLEDs. OLED suppliers are also shifting towards tandem stack structures to improve performance over single stack structures. For example, in a double stack brightness can be doubled at the same lifetime or you can have longer lifetime at the same brightness. As detailed by Oliver Haupt from Coherent’s presentation,
”Tandem OLED might be the game changer for IT OLED displays → higher brightness and lifetime ”.  
The 8.x new OLED fabs for IT are expected to start from 2024 with higher potential for performance, efficiency and cost improvements.

Invited Paper (4-3) at the symposium presented by J.S. Park from Samsung Display about “high mobility Oxide TFTs for AMOLED displays” discussed the technical hurdles that need to be overcome in order to successfully implement high performance oxide TFTs in AMOLED products. It said,
“While high performance devices do help the integration of gate driver circuits within constrained real estate and the reduction of power consumption, trade-off issues are inevitable between mobility and reliability.”
At Display Week both Nanosys and Samsung Display showcased the very impressive QD-OLED technology. According to  Jason Hartlove’s presentation (Nanosys) QD-OLED can deliver:

• Hyper-realistic color – 1.5X Richer Color
• Perfect viewing angles – 36% wider
• Brighter appearance vs WOLED – 30% brighter
• Lower materials BOM – up to 40% less (source: DSCC)

A presentation by Chirag Shah from Samsung Display noted that with their QD technology of Blue OLED display with the printed quantum dot layer color conversion and sub-pixel level dimming, the display can achieve expanded color gamut, class leading color volume, and color luminosity. Samsung Display has introduced 65-inch and 55-inch QD-OLED (QD)TV and 34-inch monitor panels. Sony and Samsung Electronics are offering QD-OLED TVs and Samsung Electronics and Dell Alienware are offering gaming monitors using a 34" curved QD-OLED display. (MSI is also adopting the panel - editor)


WOLED Also Progresses
LG Display (LGD) showcased a 97-inch OLED.EX for the first time to the public during DisplayWeek 2022. It represents the next generation WOLED TV technology with enhanced picture quality (boost brightness by 30%). It also exhibited a 42-inch bendable OLED gaming display which boasts a curvature range of up to 1000R, enabling a more immersive experience.
LGD introduced the largest 17-inch foldable OLED laptop which can transform from a tablet, to a laptop to  a portable monitor with ease.
Dr. Jang Jin YOO from LG Display presented on the ergonomics requirements of gaming display. Their study results showed that the core display parameters for gaming were derived from four major categories: Interactivity (response time, refresh rate, reaction time), Reality (field of View, Reflectance, Accurate picture (HDR, B/W brightness, contrast, color, viewing angle)), and Safety (Blue Light, Flicker). Kunjal Parikh and Vivek Paranjape from Intel presented on foldable PCs and Intel's Evo design foldable display specifications which can enable new form factors to adapt to new use cases and experiences (>16.x” >QHD foldable touch immersive display). One physical device can have many postures: laptop, table top, tablet and others.
Samsung Display also exhibited a foldable OLED gaming display that can be folded in half. SDC premiered a 12.4-inch slidable display that expands the screen horizontally from both ends and also increases portability by reducing the length to 8.1-inches offering multi-tasking ability as well as a more immersive experience.
BOE demonstrated a 95-inch 8K Oxide WOLED TV and 17.3-inch foldable OLED display as well as a slidable OLED besides many more new display products. TCL CSOT and JOLED showcased their jointly developed 65-inch 8K inkjet printed OLED display. TCL CSOT also demonstrated an 8” 360° foldable LTPO OLED with a polarizer less technology.

MiniLED: Higher Performance, Cost still a Challenge
MiniLED-based displays were introduced by top consumer brands such as Samsung, LGE, TCL, Apple and others in 2021 for TV, monitors, notebooks and tablets. By the use of multi zone blinking backlights, miniLED with QD has enabled LCD to have higher brightness, very high contrast, excellent HDR, thin form-factor, superior power efficiency and display performance close to OLED. According to David Naranjo’s presentation showing DSCC data:

• In 2021:
  • For advanced monitors, MiniLEDs outpaced OLEDs by almost a 10:1 margin.
  • For advanced notebook PCs, OLEDs outpaced MiniLEDs by a 2:1 margin.
  • For advanced tablets, MiniLEDs outpaced OLEDs by a 40% margin.

In 2022, triple digit Y/Y growth is expected

• Advanced IT displays are poised to grow as brands offer more options with competitive price points and strong value propositions.
  • OLED monitors are expected to increase 612% Y/Y while MiniLED monitors are expected to increase 202% Y/Y.
  • MiniLED notebook PCs are expected to increase 248% Y/Y while OLED notebook PCs increase 67% Y/Y.
  • MiniLED tablets are expected to grow 38% Y/Y while OLED tablets decrease 2% Y/Y.

A presentation from Yoshio Tamura from DSCC on advanced IT and TV display costs showed that
“Apple is said to be launching an OLED tablet in 2024 by using a hybrid RGB OLED display next to its current MiniLED product. Rigid and Hybrid OLED displays will have to compete with thinner/lighter LCDs, LTPS LCDs and QHD/UHD LCDs especially in the high end of the Notebook PC market to fill in their new G8.5 to 8.7G fabs from 2024.

• The MiniLEDs in Apple Macbook Pro are embedded with >10,000 LED dies and high dimming zones. The performance is better than entry level designs.
• Even in entry level MiniLED backlights, the optical performance is still much better than conventional backlights.
• LED modules (LED+ backplane + transfer) will dominate MiniLED backlight BOM cost until 2026.

In notebook PC, OLED total costs will be much less than MiniLED LCD costs in the new fabs. However, in monitor, OLED total costs will be much more than MiniLED LCD cost in the new fabs.”


At Display Week, BOE showcased an 86-inch 4K active matrix backlit MiniLED display based on glass substrates with 1500 nits brightness with >2000 zones. The active matrix addressing technique helped in achieving ultra low flicker.  
TCL CSOT showed its development of a 75-inch 8K 4 mask glass based miniLED backlight display. It also demonstrated its 34” curved miniLED display for e-sports.
AUO showcased 34” WQHD curved (1000R) miniLED gaming monitors for more immersive experience. It also showed a 16-inch 240Hz MiniLED (LTPS) gaming notebook with >1000nits brightness and 1000 diming zones.
Tianma demonstrated its development of zero border MiniLED displays and showed a 16-inch glass-based AM-TFT MiniLED LCD display.
Technology and process innovations for OLED and MiniLED based display for IT will open up new opportunities for demand growth. However costs will continue to be a challenge. (SD)
 
Sweta Dash, President, Dash-Insights
Sweta Dash is the founding president of Dash-Insights, a market research and consulting company specializing in the display industry. For more information, contact sweta@dash-insights.com or visit www.dash-insights.com

LCD TV panel prices have been declining since July 2021 and the trend is expected to continue throughout Q2 2022. With an improvement in the Covid19 situation and a shift away from STH (Stay-at-home) and WFH (Work-from-home) policies, market demand for TVs, monitors and notebooks are all forecast to be lower in 2022 compared to 2021.
At the same time, panel makers’ fab utilization rate cuts were very moderate in recent months according to industry data. Further price reductions for TV panels will push prices to below cash cost level; thereby forcing panel suppliers to intensify fab utilization rate cuts to reduce production. The recent lockdowns in China to control Covid are starting to impact factory and component production. If LCD TV set prices can reflect the cost savings for set makers from panel price reductions in the past quarters, it could help to improve demand for set. With lower production and better demand, TV panel prices could stop declining in 2H2022.

TV Panel Price Reduction continuing

According to a DSCC blog in April by Bob O’Brien,
“the potential for a negative impact on global TV demand from Russian war in Ukraine combined with high inventory levels suggest continued price pressure in Q2. Prices have declined dramatically from their peaks in mid-2021 but supply has continued to be robust throughout the first quarter and to start the second. Prices cannot fall much further before they are below cash costs, but there are no obvious drivers of demand, and demand uncertainty has been heightened by the war in Ukraine”.
The chart below highlights DSCC’s latest TV panel price update in April, showing both

• the biggest price increases in the history of the flat panel display industry, from mid-2020 to mid-2021 and then
• the fastest price decreases in the autumn of 2021. The fourth quarter of 2021 saw the biggest Q/Q price declines in the history of the flat panel display industry.

According to DSCC’s blog,
“Despite the signals of weak demand, panel maker utilization remained high in Q1’22 and appears to be continuing at a high level. The industry appears to be building inventory at a rate that is unsustainable, and past experience suggests that price declines will continue until prices fall below cash costs”.

 Uncertainty leads to lower TV demand
Large LCD panels saw dramatic increase in prices in the first half of 2021 due to unprecedented tight supply that was impacted by component shortages and strong demand both in TV and IT market. Tight supply and extremely high panel prices resulted in high LCD TV set prices. Softness in demand (due to higher set prices and improvements in the COVID 19 situation globally) combined with supply expansion lead to panel price reductions in 2H 2021. The Russia and Ukraine war, high oil price, inflation, higher interest rates in US, supply chain issues and uncertainties about second half of 2022 are all leading to further cuts in demand forecasts for 2022. LCD TV set prices are still at a higher level.

According to the April 2022 PriceWise publication by Omdia.
“Some major retailers and TV makers have been turning bearish and disappointed about TV sell-through results in recent months. They are concerned if they can smoothly clear their higher-than-normal inventories on hand during this challenging period. Therefore, they are pressured to either lower or delay TV shipments in the coming months, although they foresee logistic issues, such as port congestion, in-land transportation, and China’s zero-Covid policy, to continue disrupting their supply chain planning for this year”.
According to the publication,
“top TV makers Samsung and LG Electronics made another order cut in April, lowering purchasing plans for 2Q22; panel makers have to offer more price concessions in 2Q22. Expectations of price stabilization are diminishing for 32- and 43-inch panels, while 65-, 75-, and 85-inch panel prices are plummeting. After a drastic order cut in March and April, Samsung intends to strongly refill more panels from this June and 3Q22 onward to materialize its TV business plans for 2022”.
Traditionally, Q3 is the season for higher panel demand, as brands get ready for stronger sales in the holiday season. War, Inflation, global and macroeconomic uncertainties this year have impacted the large LCD panel market outlook.

Higher TV set price impacting demand
Higher TV set prices will impact demand. QLED- and MiniLED-based LCD TV compete with OLED TV in the premium market. With LCD panel price increases and set price increases the cost gap between LCD and OLED TV went down in 2021. LG Displays also implemented major capacity expansion of OLED TV panels with its Gen 8.5 fab in China. New product sizes, higher productions and cost reductions helped OLED TV to gain unit market share in the premium TV market. Also new QD OLED TVs from Samsung and Sony are now entering the market in 2022. If LCD TV panel price reductions can be reflected in set price reductions it will help to make QLED and MiniLED TV more competitive in the premium market. The major panel price reductions for LCD TV have not been reflected in set prices up to now.
According to a TrendForce publication in April, 2022,
“Due to issues in 2021 such as the shortage of cargo containers and port congestion, shipping costs spiked, indirectly inflating the production cost of TV sets. Before the pandemic, shipping costs on a 65-inch TV was US$9. Last year, this jumped to US$50-US$100, scaling with TV size. Even though current TV panel pricing has plunged by 30% to 40% compared to last year's peak, the fact that freight costs are not expected to improve in 2022 will inevitably affect TV brand promotions and scale of stocking during the peak season of overseas markets in 2H22”.
TrendForce has also revised its TV shipments forecast downward for 2022.

Supply Side Impact can Shift the Balance
Lockdowns in China to control Covid19 are starting to impact factory output and component supply. According to an Omdia publication in April,
 “HMO, the second polarizer supplier in China, has two lines located in Kunshan, mainly producing TV polarizers. However, because of the rapid spread of COVID-19 in nearby Shanghai, the entire city of Kunshan went into lockdown from April 6. HMO mainly supplies polarizers for large TV panels and provides polarizers to most Chinese panel makers, including CEC-Panda, CHOT, China Star, HKC, and SIO. Since most panel makers have about two weeks of polarizer inventory, the lockdown in the Kunshan area has not immediately impeded panel production. However, if the lockdown is longer than the original schedule, the HMO inventory held by panel makers could run out by mid-April. Moreover, HMO's inventory of subfilms is short as ports are closed. Assuming that the polarizer supply is stopped for April, the TV panel production area may decrease by over 5% in the second quarter of 2022”. 
Supply issues could also increase polarizer price. Further panel price reductions in Q2 2022 could push prices to below cash cost level forcing panel suppliers to cut LCD fab utilization rates. A supply side adjustment would shift LCD supply demand balance to be tighter.

Capacity expansion ⇒ Price reduction ⇒ Demand creation
The history of LCD industry has shown that the industry follows a strategy of capacity expansion, price reduction and demand creation to drive application market growth. This strategy has resulted in periodic cycles of oversupply (some call it the Crystal Cycle) that pushes price to below cost level. Then production cuts, investment delays and increases in demand due to low prices push the industry back to tight supply and increased prices. There is a time lag between each stage and between oversupply and tight supply. That creates heavy collateral damage for suppliers leading to loss of revenue and profitability.
​
It seems that at the moment, the market has reached towards the end of the “down cycle”. In the “down cycle” when prices decline, panel buyers delay purchases and keep lower inventories to avoid holding higher cost inventory, resulting in a further reduction in demand.
If the supply side can be adjusted by production cuts and set prices can be reduced to reflect panel price reduction costs savings, LCD TV panel demand could improve in the second half of 2022 and stop panel price decline. (SD)

SmartKem and Nanosys announced on Feb 2nd their joint development agreement to work together on a new generation of low-cost solution printed MicroLED and quantum dot materials for advanced display. Both companies believe a “fully solution-printed display” using SmartKem Organic TFT  (OTFT) and Nanosys’s microLED and quantum dot nanoLED technologies should result in the creation of a new class of low power, robust, flexible, lightweight displays.
They are working on prototypes and hoping to show them this year. SmartKem has previously demonstrated miniLED backlight using OTFT and working with partners for OTFT-OLED. (You're Going to Hear About Smartkem Again and Smartkem On the Up with RiTdisplay JDA ) FlexEnable has shown example of OTFT-based flexible OLED displays. The company is working on glass-free flexible OTFT LCD (OLCD) and expects first production ramp up in 2H 2022. (Novares Integrates FlexEnable’s Conformable OLCDs into its New Demo Car: Nova Car #2 and Cambridge-Based Electronics Company Raises Up to $25m Series B Fund to Accelerate Production of Flexible Displays and Active Optics)
OTFT can offer truly flexible backplane technology (with a small bend radius), fewer masks (than a-Si or LTPS), low process temperatures, low current usage, wide substrate compatibility and low cost manufacturing processes. OTFT displays are not yet in mass production but if the potential for OTFT can be realized with joint technology developments, it can open up new opportunities for the display market.

Organic TFT: an alternative to a-Si, LTPS or Oxide backplane
Organic thin-film transistors (OTFT) technology platform allows electronics to be manufactured on flexible films up to sub-mm (0.5mm) bend radius. It can be integrated with frontplanes such as LCD, EPD (e-paper), OLED, MiniLED, MicroLCD and NanoLED. It has better mobility than amorphous silicon but lower mobility than oxide or LTPS. According to the OTFT suppliers, the mobility is enough for most application segments. It enables manufacturing like other substrates but can use a lower cost flexible substrate (TAC film/plastic) compared to LTPS or Oxide (Polyimide). Its processing temperature (<100 degrees) is low compared to a-Si, Oxide, or LTPS (300 to 350 degree). It has long operating lifetimes and very high uniformity for large area manufacturing. Its manufacturing process cost is low as display makers can repurpose existing LCD lines with minimal investment. It can be scaled up to any generation fab and has the potential to create truly flexible and cost effective display solutions.

Quantum Dot: Enabling LCD, OLED, MicroLED and NanoLED
Quantum Dot technology enhances LCD, OLED and MicroLED displays and is progressing towards self-emissive NanoLED (ELQD). The technology has evolved during the last few years to improve or eliminate many challenges, resulting in broader adoption of QDs. Nanosys’s new aerobically stable xQDEF is lowering costs and helping to increase manufacturability. QD enhancement film (QDEF) enabled LCDs to get to market.
QDOLED displays from Samsung Display has entered the market in 2022 with product demos at CES. QDOLED combines the best of OLED and QD technology: it provides very high contrast (due to the OLED sub-pixel), perfect black, wider viewing angles with better color gamut and higher brightness. However there are still many challenges. Blue emitting materials still have efficiency and lifetime issues. Multiple layers of blue OLED can be used to reduce the problem.

OTFT enabling: QD-MicroLED
The mass transfer process that requires bonding RGB (Red Green Blue) MicroLED to the display backplane accurately and efficiently is very challenging. Using single-color (blue) MicroLED chips and color converting them with QD layers can help in the manufacturing process. There have been many announcements and prototypes but no mass production yet. Nanosys has acquired “glō” a company specialized in MicroLED technologies, including epitaxy as well as device and transfer technology.
SmartKem, is the developer of materials and processes used to make OTFTs for the manufacture of flexible electronics. The truFlex semiconductor technology from the firm deposits organic ink on a substrate at a temperature as low as 80°C, enabling manufacturers to use a range of low-cost flexible plastic substrates with existing industry standard equipment and infrastructure. The joint development agreement with Nanosys announced that the initial validation work on the equipment, process and materials readiness has already occurred.
There is already mass production partnership with display suppliers. The joint development agreement contemplates that through the application of its unique truFlex technology, SmartKem will provide OTFT backplanes to enable the manufacture of microLED displays using Nanosys’ microLED and ELQD technologies. truFlex materials have been developed for standard process equipment sets and have the benefit of both lower material and equipment costs than traditional alternatives such as LTPS. According to Sri Peruvemba, CMO at SmartKem, “Now that two companies SmartKem and Nanosys are working together, their synergies may revolutionize the display industry”. They are already working with MicroLED companies’ partners, and hoping to show prototypes this year. (for more about this deal see last week's Display Daily Smartkem & Nanosys Expand on Joint Development)

OTFT enabling: QD NanoLED
Nanosys has been actively developing electroluminescent quantum dot (EL-QD) technology which it calls “NanoLED”. It uses solution-printed QDs as the emitter material to make AM emissive displays. Printable, low cost QD materials with superior performance have the potential to directly compete with OLED displays even in the flexible segment. SmartKem OTFT is a printed technology. The firm has built products on its pilot line and is transferring technology to display suppliers.
The most important factor is the potential for lower cost. Nanosys has the experience of taking QD technology from lab to fab in the display industry. This unique combination of two technologies OTFT and QD has the potential to allow lower cost products. Russell Kempt, Nanosys VP of marketing said “Development of OTFT backplane for MicroLED and NanoLED can be potentially a game changer for the display industry”.

OTFT backplane: For MiniLED
OTFT can be used for miniLED backlight with full array local dimming (FALD). SmartKem has demonstrated miniLED backlight for HDR LCD with over 100,000 cd/m² of brightness. FALD is a process of locally controlling LED light levels in a segmented backlight unit to enhance contrast in images while decreasing the “halo” effect around bright areas on black backgrounds. It requires thousands of miniLEDs to deliver the intended picture quality and this increases the manufacturing cost of the backlight unit. According to SmartKem: by the use of an OTFT backplane approach, miniLED runs much more efficiently and delivers improved quality at a much lower cost.

OTFT substrate:  For OLED
As OTFT is already a fundamentally flexible substrate; when combined with flexible frontplanes like OLED displays displays can be truly foldable. OTFT uses low processing temperature that allows it to be manufactured on a lower cost plastic substrates bringing in cost and manufacturing benefits to OLED. FlexEnable has demonstrated flexible OLEDs with OTFT backplanes with Novaled (OLED material supplier). In 2021, SmartKem announced a joint development agreement with PMOLED maker RiT display for the production of OTFT-based AMOLED display. This could enable RiT display to use its PMOLED production line to produce AMOLED display without a large investment.

OTFT enabling:  Flexible OLCD
FlexEnable arranged to be able to raise $11 millon -$25 million in February this year to take flexible displays and active optics to mass production. (Cambridge-Based Electronics Company Raises Up to $25m Series B Fund to Accelerate Production of Flexible Displays and Active Optics) It is expected to finance the company for its mass production ramp up of flexible displays and LC optical modules at Asian display manufacturing partners. Coretronic, a major LCD backlight module manufacturer has made strategic investment in the company. FlexEnable has a complete set of manufacturing process and FlexiOM organic semiconductor materials.
Together it enables manufacturing of glass-free flexible OLCD and LC Optics in existing fabs allowing ultrathin, light, flexible and even 3D confirmable products. The company already has four active technology transfer programs underway with several leading display manufacturers in Asia with first volume production ramp starting in the second half of 2022. It has the potential to go into multiple mainstream applications and display segments where flexible displays are absent today.
There are many different applications: flexible cylindrical for smart speakers, curved displays for automotive, thin light bezel less notebooks and tablets, or for dual cell TVs with true pixel-level dimming and higher transmission than glass-based dual cells. OTFT LCD cost will be very similar to glass a-Si LCD as many components are the same such as polarizers and backlights.  
According to Paul Cain, Strategy Director for FlexEnable
“OLCD is by far the lowest cost flexible display, because of the simple low temperature process and substrate handling, and re-use of many of the cost-optimized existing LC supply chain components”.
He also added that OLCD is better in terms of sustainability because of low manufacturing temp with no CVD steps and the production process uses 25% less energy than a-Si fabs. Also they are designed to use existing a-Si LCD fabs and can achieve the same PPI and resolution. OTFT LC cells can be combined with many different types of backlights (e.g. miniLED, edge-lit) which can be flexible. Setting up the process, technology transfer, and display suppliers deciding to adopt the technology in their fabs takes time.

Implications: OTFT & QD will open new opportunities
​The new joint technology development agreements and higher investments can open up new opportunities for the display industry.

• Availability of low cost flexible display due to low temp processes, reuse of cost optimized fabs and using the existing supply chain
• Flexible organic LCD products that don’t exist today
• Potential for lower cost OLED and MiniLED backlights
• Commercialization of low cost QD MicroLED displays
• Fully solution-printed emissive display ELQDs without multibillion capital investment or massive fabs

Technology innovations and supply chain collaborations are really critical for the next generation of OTFT based displays to transform them from prototypes to successful commercial products with volume production that can compete effectively with OLED and LCD in future. (SD)


Sweta Dash, President, Dash-Insights
Sweta Dash is the founding president of Dash-Insights, a market research and consulting company specializing in the display industry. For more information, contact sweta@dash-insights.com or visit www.dash-insights.com