​It is time to evaluate display technology trends for 2023. The flat panel display market slowed down considerably in 2022 as demand declined after two years of outstanding growth in demand driven by Pandemic need.


In 2022, the market has been experiencing negative growth, in units, revenue and area shipments. All major application markets including TVs, monitors, notebooks, tablets and smartphones are undergoing decline in revenue and unit shipments. The global economic outlook is still uncertain. The rate of inflation increase is slowing down but a fear of recession is still there.
As I said this time last year, in such uncertain times, product differentiation, newer technologies, higher performance and lower prices will help to drive demand. In 2022, in spite of negative growth in units and revenue for all major applications, advanced products with higher display performance based on miniLED, quantum dots (QDs), and OLED experienced positive growth and increased market share. The flat panel market is expected to recover in 2023. Panel suppliers have cut utilization rates drastically and have delayed or cancelled new capacity plans. Inventories are starting to ease up, and retail prices have come down especially for large size TVs. This will help in demand recovery in 2023.
MiniLED Display: Strong GrowthMiniLED-based displays have been introduced by top consumer brands such as Samsung, LGE, TCL, Apple and others for TV, monitors, notebooks, tablets and auto applications. Cost is still a challenge. LED costs are coming down. Suppliers are also increasing the number of dimming zones per driver IC, improving transfer throughputs and transfer yield rates and integrating supply chains to reduce costs and improve performance. Drastic panel price reduction for LCD in the first three quarters of 2022 will contribute to reduced costs for MiniLED-based products in 2023.

• TVs: MiniLED QD TVs have increased share and shipments with higher display performance, higher resolutions (4K and 8K), larger screen sizes (higher production from 10.5 Gen fabs)) and more product options in 2022 and are expected to increase share and shipments again in 2023. However, the category is still lagging OLED TV shipments.
• Monitors: MiniLED QD monitors have been successful with gaming features (4K gaming at 120Hz): with low response time, auto low latency mode and variable refresh rates from many suppliers.
• Notebooks & Tablets: Apple’s iPad and Macbook Pro based on MiniLED are big contributors to this category expanding sales in 2022 and 2023. Apple is expected to shift to OLED for these IT products in 2024, impacting MiniLED growth in this category in future years.

Technology innovations for MiniLED based display will open up new opportunities for demand growth but cost will be very critical.  
Quantum Dot: Growth in Shipments and Shares
Quantum Dot display technology is continuously evolving with new materials and new processes. It is enhancing LCD, OLED and MicroLED and progressing towards next generation self-emissive display. 
Most of the top TV manufacturers such as Samsung, LGE, Sony, TCL, Hisense, Vizio, and Skyworth have already adopted QD (QDEF) display technology in their TVs. It has enabled LCD technology to reinvent itself and has created growth opportunities in the TV market with higher shipments and shares. Drastic panel price reduction for LCD can lower QDLED TV costs increasing shipments and share further in 2023..
QD-OLED: Increasing SalesSamsung Display has introduced 65-inch and 55-inch QD-OLED (QD) TVs and 34-inch monitor panels at CES in 2022. Sony and Samsung Electronics are offering QD-OLED TV and Samsung Electronics and Dell Alienware are offering gaming monitors. QD-OLED technology of blue OLED display with printed quantum dot layer color conversion and sub-pixel level dimming, display can achieve expanded color gamut, higher color volume, and color luminosity.
However, there are still many challenges. Blue emitting materials still have efficiency and lifetime issues. UDC has announced that they expect to meet preliminary target specs with their phosphorescent blue by year-end, which should enable the introduction of their all-phosphorescent RGB stack into the commercial market in 2024. The use of phosphorescent blue can help to reduce multiple layers, increase efficiency and lifetime. It can also help to reduce costs and expand existing capacity by reducing the number of blue layers. QD-OLED products sales are increasing. SDC is expected to add 77” TVs and 49” monitors in 2023 using MMG configuration.  Further new QD OLED investments are expected in 2023.
QD OLED architecture – Source: Samsungdisplay.com
Quantum Dot and MiniLED:  Coming to AR/VR/MRMeta has introduced the “Meta Quest Pro”, a high-end mixed reality device, in 2022. Meta Quest Pro uses dual LCDs (2.48”), with miniLED backlight and QD technology. This is the first time Meta has introduced a QD and MiniLED dual LCD-based device. LCD is the leading technology in the VR market. Advanced LTPS TFT LCD is generally used for VR for high resolution displays. It has already achieved more than 1200PPI. Companies are targeting 2000 to 2500PPI resolution in the next two to three years. Local dimming backlights with miniLED can lower power consumption and optimize the image for higher contrast. Fast response LC (liquid crystal) with high-speed backlight switching can offer a clearer image. There is a surge in interests and investments in AR/VR market due to the recent focus by industry leading companies such as Meta, Microsoft, Apple and others.
OLED: Growth in Shipments with Improved Price and PerformanceOLED is going through major technology developments in the face of fierce competition which will help increase share and improve price performance.
WOLED TV: Higher Performance & Higher SupplyLG Display (LGD), the leader for OLED TV panels has been continuously improving its WOLED technology, increasing size offerings, expanding capacity and increasing shipments especially in the premium/high-end TV market. LGD has introduced its most advanced OLED panel with EX technology: 30% higher brightness (by applying deuterium), 30% increase in reliability and 34% narrower bezel. Next generation OLED from LGD is expected to have micro lens array, high mobility oxide, high efficiency, real-time compensation and be bezel-less.
 OLED IT: Growth with New Product and CapacityOLED display competes with miniLED in the high-end notebook and tablet market. MiniLED has had a dominant share in 2022. RGB OLED capacity is expected to increase for IT applications in 2024-2025 as many suppliers including Samsung Display are planning to start 8.7 Gen AMOLED fabs for the notebook and tablet market. Suppliers are also bringing major improvements to OLED performance such as tandem RGB OLED stacks, phosphorescent blue OLED emitters, color filter on encapsulation (CoE), rigid plus TFE (Thin Film Encapsulation) substrate, LTPO/Variable refresh and many other technology enhancements.  At the same time new G8.7 substrates, IGZO backplanes and rigid plus TFE architecture will help to reduce costs. This will enable OLED to increase share in 2023 and future years for IT markets. Apple is also expected to adopt OLED for IT starting from 2024.
OLED Flexible: Increasing SharesThe global smartphone display market experienced a strong decline in 2022, due to macroeconomic factors, high inventories and a slowdown in the China market. Brands focused more on premium products to improve revenue. Higher sales of advanced smartphone products, especially Apple’s iPhone 14, helped the growth of flexible OLED with more advanced technologies such as LTPO (LTPS + Oxide TFT). Apple’s iPhones and Samsung’s Galaxy products are already using LTPO which has big advantages in lower power consumption and variable refresh rates. LTPO display is expected to have strong growth in 2023 and future years. LCD has been losing share but it is still the dominant technology for global smartphone displays due to lower cost. The smartphone display market is expected to recover in 2023.
OLED Foldable:  GrowingAccording to industry data, foldable smartphone shipments increased in 2022, when the total global smartphone market declined.  New product introductions, innovative designs, increased reliability, better features, higher performances and competitive pricing are helping to drive foldable smartphone demands.
Samsung has introduced 4th Gen foldable smartphones, the Z Flip4 and Galaxy Z Fold4, in 2022. Most of the mainstream brands have joined the foldable smartphone market and have been expanding their product line ups. With more robust innovative form factors, better price performances and technology advancements, foldable phones are forecasted to follow a growth path in next five years, but they will occupy a small percentage share of the total global smartphone market.
OLED on Silicon (SiOLED): Poised for higher adoptionsOLED on Silicon (OLED microdisplays) generally have higher pixel density than AMOLED. SiOLED microdisplay can be used for both VR and see-through AR. MicroOLED displays can be generally categorized into RGB OLED and White OLED (WOLED). However high resolution RGB OLED microdisplays still face challenges due to a challenging FMM deposition process. White OLED uses color filters to generate the image which can achieve high PPI (4000PPI). However, color filters absorb a very high percentage of the emitted light that limits maximum brightness for microOLED. Sony has been using microLens technology to increase the peak brightness of OLED microdisplays.
According to industry data and expectations, Apple is expected to introduce new Reality Pro Product (2H 2023) which will have dual microOLED plus one AMOLED display with a pixel density of >3000 PPI. Apple’s adoptions of technology will help SiOLED to gain a higher share in future.
OLED microdisplay Source:Sony-semicon.com
MicroLED:  ProgressingMicroLED display technology is making steady progress towards commercialization. The technology still faces several complex manufacturing challenges, which will take time to resolve. The success of commercialization and mass production will depend on the ability to scale up for volume production with competitive price performance.
In the year 2023, the flat panel display market is expected to recover. Still. the market outlook is uncertain due to macro-economic factors. In such uncertain times, product differentiation, newer technology, higher performance and lower prices will help to drive demand. (SD)
Sweta Dash, President, Dash-Insights
Sweta Dash is the founding president of Dash-Insights, a market research and consulting company specializing in the display industry. For more information, contact [email protected] or visit www.dash-insights.com
 
 

CategoriesDaily

OLED display technology is continuing to advance for next generation products. A glimpse of that was seen through various presentations at the OLEDs World Summit 2022 conference in October this year. Technology development, improvements in materials and manufacturing technologies combined with capacity expansion will help OLED displays to gain higher market share in the future.
 This year, Jason Hartlove, from Nanosys, in his keynote presentation for the combined session of Phosphorus and Quantum Dot Industry Forum and OLEDs World Summit posed a thought-provoking question for the industry:
“How can we use technologies to dramatically improve the way our products are interacting with us and with our environment with the big challenge facing us today?’

Can Technology Advances in the Display Industry Help to Solve Global Challenges?

Nanosys is the world's leading QD (Quantum Dot) material developer and manufacturer. According to Nanosys’s CEO, Jason Hartlove’s presentation, the most important challenges that need to be addressed are:

• The twin Threats of global warming and energy security
• Human health and wellbeing
• Stewardship of the environment

He said
“the twin threats of global warming and energy security’s impact are already coming into display industry. Recent changes in the energy standards in Europe, have basically made it all but impossible for 8K TV to be sold in Europe next year.  
Displays are 4.6% of US household electricity consumption. Displays also account for up to 40% of CE energy use”.
​
Data from his presentation showed that heavy metal free (HMF) QD displays deliver best in class power efficiency. His call for action for the display industry is to,
“create designs using OLED, HMF QDs and Phosphors which use less energy- potential impact – global 1% energy use reduction”.
For “human health and wellbeing” challenge he said
“motion to photon lag is the leading cause of cybersickness.”

His suggestion was,
“displays should strive for >90hz and <<13ms latency for good experiences”.
For the environmental challenges, he said
“non-heavy metal materials exist and are often superior in performance”.

His message for the industry was -
“Design for efficiency, human wellness and sustainability”.

Materials and Manufacturing Technology - Improving

Mike Hack from UDC said,
”there are continuing advances inventing and developing next-generation materials with increasing energy-efficiencies with proven lifetimes for reduced power consumption and enhanced sustainability”.

UDC has announced that they expect to meet preliminary target specs with their phosphorescent blue by year-end, enabling the introduction of all-phosphorescent RGB stacks into the commercial market in 2024.
He said that key benefits to completing the full color spectrum of high efficiency by phosphorescence (PHOLED) includes: reduced power consumption, extended battery life, higher brightness, lower panel temperature and increased sustainability. UDC also reported a research breakthrough in Plasmonic OLED that can dramatically increase the stability of all colors of PHOLED. It can also leverage plasmonics to enable faster decay of excitons and recover the energy using an outcoupling scheme.
He presented that,
“the plasmonic PHOLED, a new OLED architecture, will enable another leap in OLED efficiency and lifetime”.
UDC has also developed organic vapor jet printing (OVJP), a solventless, maskless, printing technology for patterning small molecule organic materials to manufacture large area side by side RGB TVs. Qiongying Hu, from Coherent presented that their Excimer Laser Annealing (ELA) is the foundation for advanced LTPO (LTPS+Oxide) enabling high frame rates of >100Hz. Laser processes are also integral part of flexible displays.

Next Gen Technology for TV - Evolving

LG Display, the leader for OLED TV panels, has been continuously improving WOLED technology, increasing the size offerings, expanding capacity and increasing shipments especially in the premium/high-end TV market. LGD has introduced its most advanced OLED panel with EX technology.
According to J.J. Yoo, from LG Display,
“EX technology has 30% higher brightness (by applying deuterium, creating more stable and robust structure), 30% increase in reliability (by personalized algorithm, sensing plus counting based on AI and Big data) and 34% narrower bezel (by applying highly integrated GIP tech design)”.

Yoo presented that OLED has accurate HDR performance (100% pixel dimming), 100% color fidelity, eye comfort and eye safe (low blue light and flicker free), and is eco-friendly (less harmful substance and high recyclability). He said that nextgen OLED will have microlens arrays, high mobility oxide backplanes, high efficiency OLED materials, real-time compensation and will be bezel-less. LGD has also developed transparent OLED which can open up opportunities in signage, architecture, mobility and home style market.

Samsung Display has introduced QDOLED (heavy metal-free printed QDs) this year in 34/55/65inch sizes that deliver increased display performance, higher brightness and better color gamut. Sony and Samsung Electronics are already selling 55 and 65-inch QDOLED TVs. Dell has launched 34-inch ODOLED monitor for the gaming market. According to Hartlove’s presentation with equal luminance between QDLCD and QD OLED, QDOLED is rated as brighter. QD OLED can deliver more perceived brightness with less power.

Jerry Kang from OMDIA presented that SDC is planning to pattern QDCC directly on OLED encapsulation for 2nd generation QD OLED, thereby it can shift from two glass substrate to one glass sheet. This will make it thinner and more efficient. Longjia Wu, from TCL Research presented on his company’s progress for inkjet printed IJP QLED (QD emissive) display. TCL expects mass production in the 2024–2025 time frame.

These technology developments for the TV application will help to meet power consumption challenges in future. Higher brightness and high resolutions (8K) requirements have increased the power requirements. Now the industry is facing challenges and has to focus more on power savings by improving materials and processes.

Next Gen Technology for IT - Expanding

In Omdia presentation, Jerry Kang said,
“Gen6 & larger generation, OLED Panel makers are developing a few new technologies to apply to Tablet PC & Notebook PC.

• Hybrid OLED Structure with glass substrates + TFE encapsulation
• Flexible OLED structures for foldable / rollable form factor
• RGB tandem stack OLED structures
• Gen 8.6 half cut evaporation with Fine Metal Masks (Horizontal)
• Gen 8.6 full cut evaporation with Fine Metal Masks (Vertical)
• LTPO TFT and Oxide TFT with high electron mobility
• Atomic Layer Deposition (ALD) for thin-film encapsulation
• Atomic Layer Deposition for Oxide TFT with high electron mobility"

According to Omdia estimation, Apple is expected to have Hybrid OLED iPad by 2024 and MacBook by 2026. Gen8 production is required for better productivity of IT OLED.  As per  Omdia estimation, Gen8.6 pilot will start in 2024 and OLED panel shipments for notebook and Tablet expected to have strong growth in next 5 years.
Jerry Kang said,
“foldable OLEDs for IT devices require larger sizes, so Gen 8.6 full cut is being considered."
Suppliers are considering from above 10-inch sizes to above 20-inch sizes for for foldable IT products.  Kunjal Parikh from Intel mentioned that Intel Evo™ design has foldable display specs requirements.
He said,
“the Intel Visual Sensing Controller helps enable users to have a secure, responsive, immersive, and power-efficient PC without compromising on performance, quality, or battery life by using smart sensing solutions to intelligently manage power consumption and deliver great user experiences”.

Next Gen Technology for Smart Phones - Progressing

The Omdia presentation on smartphone shipments with ifs forecast, showed that the market is down again this year due to sluggish demand. However, OEMs are continuing to increase the adoption of high refresh rate displays. Apple has already adopted LTPO substrates for the iPhone 13 (Pro and Pro Max) and also for iPhone 14 (Pro and Pro Max). Samsung Galaxy products are already using LTPO technology which has big advantages in lower power consumption and variable refresh rates. 

According to Kang’s presentation -  OTI Lumionic’s CPM (Cathode Patterning Material) process will be useful for under panel camera structures. CPM works with standard OLED cathode materials, requiring no change in OLED stack implementation. Samsung Display has also introduced its new "Eco2OLED" technology, which dramatically reduces the power consumptions of panels. It removes the polarizer applied to the panel to increase light transmittance and optimizes the pixel structure to control external light reflection.

Samsung Display’s Eco2OLED operates at 86.8% power consumption level compared to conventional and Eco2OLED Plus operates at 74.3% level. The Omdia presentation showed that almost all mainstream brands (except Apple, of course - Editor) have joined the foldable smartphone competition and are accelerating the expansion of product line-ups. For foldable cover lenses, Samsung is using ultra-thin glass while some brands are trying thinning solutions. Foldable smartphones are forecast to grow in the next 7 years according to Omdia even though the 2022 outlook is below the original forecast.
​
The presentations from the OLED Summit gave a glimpse of next generation OLED technology and what to expect in future. They showed that suppliers are working towards improving performance while reducing power consumption and making it better for health and the environment but will take time to implement. The question still remains of whether the current progress in the display industry will be enough and can be implemented in a timely manner to meet today’s most important challenges? (SD)
​
Sweta Dash, President, Dash-Insights
Sweta Dash is the founding president of Dash-Insights, a market research and consulting company specializing in the display industry. For more information, contact [email protected] or visit www.dash-insights.com